While the Atlanta Falcons have been forced to play to a hellacious early season schedule, Dan Quinn’s squad had numerous opportunities to enter this Week 4 Monday Night Football tilt against the undefeated Green Bay Packers with a winning record. Unfortunately, the team had no idea how to close things out against the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears over the last two weeks even though they held double-digit fourth quarter leads. Online sportsbooks currently have the visiting Falcons installed decided 7-point underdogs with the game total set at 57 for this matchup. Does Quinn keep his job if the Falcons fall to 0-4? Those holding futures tickets with him locked as the first NFL coach fired this season most definitely be tuning in!
Watch this regular season NFL Week 4 matchup on Monday, October 5, 2020, at 7:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field. You can bet on NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +7
Green Bay Packers -7
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Green Bay initially hit the betting board as 6-point favorites with the O/U set at 57.5 for the Week 4 concluder. The betting markets have sided with the home based Packers and under in early wagering. With 58 percent of the betting handle going the way of the home team, linemakers have bumped the number to beat up to -7 with -115 juice attached to the impost. Understandable since Green Bay battled back from an early first quarter deficit to cover the chalk in their lone home game played this season against the division rival Detroit Lions. With Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense leading the league in points scored with an average of 40.7 points per game, it comes as no surprise to see 66 percent of the bets on the O/U in favor of a high scorer playing out. However, reverse line movement has occurred with the total down a half-point to 57. It’s down to 56.5 at some spots as well which lets NFL bettors know sharp money expects points to be tougher to come by.
Injury Report
The Packers defense just allowed noodle-armed Drew Brees to throw for 288 yards and 3 TD last Sunday night. While most of the damage was incurred by Alvin Kamara on dump-offs and screens out of the backfield, Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’quan Smith combined for 98 yards on eight receptions and 11 targets. Bottom line, Green Bay’s pass defense is susceptible to giving up chunk yards with it conceding nearly 250 per game (No. 18). Unfortunately, Julio Jones is listed as questionable for this game due to the hamstring injury incurred in the game against the Dallas Cowboys that forced him to miss last week’s game against the Bears. WR3 Russel Gage is also questionable after suffering a head injury that landed him in the concussion protocol. Should each miss and not be able to take advantage of the Pack’s porous secondary, Matt Ryan will be forced to go to war with Calvin Ridley, Hunter Hurst, Olamide Zaccheaus and Brandon Powell.
Matchup to Watch
Rodgers has felt very little in terms of resistance in his attempt to navigate the Packers’ passing attack. His front wall anchored by all-league tackle David Bakhtiari has only allowed their Pro Bowl QB to get thrown to the turf a grand total of two times through three played games. Only the Seattle Seahawks have given up more yards through the air than that of the Falcons who’ve served up an average of 350.3 yards per game to Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. Should Davante Adams be deemed healthy enough to participate in this game, Atlanta’s pass defense will be up against it. With that, it will be of utmost importance to those taking the points with the Falcons that the defense find a way to somehow disrupt what Rodgers wants to do every time he steps back to sling the pigskin. If not, Green Bay will once again be in line to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Free ATS Pick
After nailing the correct sides in both games of the Monday Night Football doubleheader the opening week of the season and following it up with an outright win call on the Raiders in Week 2, I swung and missed in a big way by calling for a Ravens woodshed beating of the Chiefs last week. Hopefully I can make it up to you this week with an ugly dog selection on a desperate Falcons side that has the reinforcements offensively to hang with the Packers every step of the way. Atlanta for all intents and purposes should be a 2-1 team right now. On the other hand, Green Bay was a botched gimmick play call by Sean Payton away from falling in the bayou last week. Also, the Packers fell behind 14-3 to the Lions in their home opener before erupting the rest of the way to cruise to the win and cover. I’m not sold on this Packers team. They were overrated last season and not much about the makeup of the team has changed since. Gimme the touchdown and sprinkle some beer money on the Falcons moneyline as well just in case Quinn gets out of his own way and the team is finally able to see a win all the way through.
NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Packers 26
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