The COVID monster has completely changed the dynamic of the Week 9 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. It kept Davante Adams and other wide receivers out of last week’s game in Arizona, but Matt LaFleur’s troops still overcame the absences and came up with the impressive 24-21 outright win as 6.5-point desert dogs. But this time around, Aaron Rodgers will be prevented from nestling in under center which affords the Chiefs struggling defense a likely easier go of it against backup Jordan Love who will be making the first official start of his NFL career. Because of it, the betting markets have heavily shifted to the homebased Chiefs with KC laying a laughable amount of points considering it’s only managed to cover five of its last 20 games at online sportsbooks. Have NFL bettors not actually paid attention to what’s been going down with the defending AFC champs this season?
Watch this regular season Week 9 matchup on Sunday, November 7, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium on FOX.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +8
Kansas City Chiefs -8
Total 48
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the host Chiefs laying 2.5-points and the total set at 54; the highest total of the Week 9 slate. The betting markets initially backed the Packers with over 70 percent of the bets and money ultimately forcing linemakers to move the game down to a near pick ‘em. But since news surfaced early Wednesday that Rodgers tested positive for the virus, an influx of bets and money has hammered the Chiefs pushing the number to beat all the way up to -8 with some 7s littered across the board as well. The total has fallen all the way to 48 in the process with 53 percent of bets and 66 percent of the money not expecting these teams to combine for an over.
Player to Watch
Packer fans and bettors will finally get a chance to see what their top pick from a few drafts ago has in the tank with a full assortment of weapons at his side. Even so, I firmly believe the Packers will be looking to play it safe – at least early on – and lean on the rushing attack that should thrive versus a Kansas City stop unit that’s been gashed on the ground repeatedly to the tune of 121.8 yards per game (No. 22) and a healthy 4.6 yards per carry (No. 28). On top of that, it’s given up an average of 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. I’ll be taking long looks at Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon rushing props, and will also be targeting both back’s receiving yard props with the Chiefs having allowed 83 percent of the 60 targets thrown a running back’s way to be completed for 451 yards and a touchdown. Also look to throw some beer money on anytime touchdown scores for both backs.
Key Stat
Look no further than the number of turnovers for why the Chiefs have struggled this season. They lead the NFL in giveaways with 17, five more than Jacksonville, Houston and the Jets, who each have coughed it up 12 times. Those three clubs have a combined record of 3-16 telling us that turnovers are a key stat in the NFL. What’s been really disturbing for the Chiefs and their fans is the play of Mahomes with the football. He leads the NFL with nine interceptions thrown in 277 pass attempts nearly matching his total (11) in 1,072 pass attempts in the previous two seasons combined. He’s also lost a pair fumbles to account for 11 of the team’s turnovers. The Chiefs are tied with Jacksonville with the worst turnover margin in the league at minus-10.
Free ATS Pick
Turnovers and a lack of physicality have turned the Chiefs into nothing less than an ordinary football team through the first eight weeks of the regular season. Patrick Mahomes is pressing bigtime trying to do as much as he possibly can to get the team out of its rut. It hasn’t panned out with the stud QB1 already throwing 10 interceptions after only throwing a grand total of 11 the previous two seasons combined. As bad the team is currently running which includes Travis Kelce being a no-show the last three weeks, I’m having a hard time buying into the Chiefs winning this game by multiple scores regardless of Green Bay being forced to go with its backup quarterback. Truth be told, that 3-1 pay-off on the moneyline is hard to pass as well, so let’s go full degen and bet the Packers to win outright!
NFL Pick: Packers 27, Chiefs 26
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