The Green Bay Packers are hoping that a new coach will get the team back to the postseason after a couple years of middling results. There was clearly dysfunction between Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers needed to shake things up. Matt LaFleur is a fresh face, but there are concerns coming into this season due to his relative inexperience. LaFleur was only a coordinator for two seasons before being hired as the Packers head coach, and the offense he was in charge of last year was pretty underwhelming.
Will the Green Bay Packers Make the Playoffs in 2019?
Yes -110
No -120
Odds Analysis
Although there are some major red flags coming into the season, Green Bay is considered a toss-up to make the postseason per the NFL betting odds. Such is the power of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is far and away the best quarterback in the division, and if he and LaFleur click, this offense could do incredible things in 2019.
Breaking Down Green Bay’s Offense
Everything depends on Rodgers. The Packers’ star quarterback didn’t miss a beat after coming back from a major injury in 2017, tossing just two interceptions despite having almost 600 pass attempts. His legendary accuracy and decision-making was on full display, but the offense was just not as prolific as it was earlier this decade.
It will be interesting to see the dynamic that LaFleur and Rodgers have this season. There was a little bit of friction when playcalling was discussed in the offseason, and it’s clear that the issue became one of the underlying reasons for Mike McCarthy’s dismissal. Rodgers appears to want more autonomy here, so LaFleur will have to adjust.
Davante Adams is still the Packers’ top receiver. Adams had another fantastic year in 2018, catching 111 passes for 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns. He is the clear No. 1, but the receiving corps has lacked a solid complementary receiver for a few years. Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished with the second-best stats of the receivers, but his 52.1 percent catch rate is a red flag, and none of the other options distinguished themselves. Tight end Jimmy Graham’s numbers have fallen off too, so the Packers drafted Jace Sternberger to give Rodgers a new red zone option.
David Bakhtiari is arguably the best left tackle in the league, and he keeps Rodgers’ blind side secure. The tackle opposite him (Bryan Bulaga) is quite good too, but the interior line is a potential problem.
Running back Aaron Jones averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season, and LaFleur is likely to use his running backs a lot more than McCarthy. That was one of the biggest criticisms of McCarthy.
Breaking Down Green Bay’s Defense
Veteran defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was hired to coach the Packers’ defense. This is an encouraging hire considering the type of defenses that Pettine was in charge of during his time with the Jets and the Bills, so there should be some improvement for Green Bay.
Of course, there’s nowhere to go up for this defense. The Packers defense was ranked 29th per DVOA in 2018, so that was the front office’s focus this offseason. Green Bay selected Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage Jr. in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, and they acquired Za’Darius Smith and Adrian Amos in free agency.
The big question will be whether or not Green Bay can stop the run. The Packers are planning to run a 3-4, but they don’t have great defensive linemen and the depth is very unproven.
Prediction
Sometimes things get worse before they get better. That’s what this situation feels like, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see Green Bay finish with an even worse record in 2019. The LaFleur hire was a bit of a head-scratcher, and although I like Pettine, this defense will need some time.
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