It’s a bit unfair for a team fighting for its playoff life to field a squad of backups and practice squad players for a key game this late in the season. But those are the perils of the NFL during the COVID era. The Cleveland Browns nearly pulled off a huge win with a thinned out roster and a quarterback who joined the team just a few days ago. Even rescheduling the game wasn’t enough to get key personnel back on the field. At least the Browns should have some of their regulars back when they visit the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day, though it still may not be enough.
This regular season Week 16 matchup will take place on Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI and will be televised on FOX.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cleveland Browns +7.5
Green Bay Packers -7.5
Total 44
Odds Analysis
Given the state of the Browns roster many shops have yet to post a line for their contest in Green Bay. When searching around I did find a line posted that had the Packers as an 8-point favorite. That’s likely to change once the situation gets some clarity. There’s a good chance several of the players on the COVID list are sprung free before the teams square off on Saturday. Even with their depleted bunch the Browns came so close to getting a victory that would have vaulted them to the top of the AFC North standings. Instead the 16-14 setback dropped them to last place leaving their playoff chances on life support. The Packers meanwhile, became the first team to secure a playoff spot by beating Baltimore on Sunday, though they failed to cover the 9.5-point line. Green Bay is perfect at home this season going 6-0 SU and ATS and they need to keep winning in order to secure the No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye.
Key Injury
Who do you want to talk about in this section? There are a number of Browns players we can mention since a good chunk of their roster was shelved for Monday’s rescheduled contest with Las Vegas. The team’s top two quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum, failed to exit the COVID protocol leaving Nick Mullens to start. In all 22 players, including 10 starters, missed the game while on the COVID list. While there were some holes on defense the line held firm for the start. But things quickly changed for a group that’s kept the Brown in a number of games this season.
Tak McKinley was carted off the field with what looked like a serious ankle injury. Myles Garrett also showed discomfort from a groin injury that severely limited his ability to pressure the quarterback. It doesn’t look good for McKinley, which is a big loss. An even bigger defeat for the defense would be Garrett’s injury. One way to beat the Packers is to pressure Aaron Rodgers and Garrett is one of the best at harassing opposing QBs. He entered the game tied for second in the NFL with 15 sacks and he was visibly affected by the injury. Though he finished the contest, Garrett wasn’t the same menacing force, and if the Browns can’t pressure Rodgers the MVP could have a big game.
Key Stat
It’s no coincidence that the successful teams in the NFL value the football. And right now no team is better at that than the Packers. Green Bay has turned the ball over a league-low 10 times and they are tied for second with a plus-12 turnover margin. It starts with Rodgers, who has thrown just four interceptions in 441 pass attempts. Even more impressive is that he’s gone four straight games without a pick while tossing 13 touchdown passes. That nightmare loss to New Orleans was such a long time ago. You remember the game where Rodgers threw a pair of interceptions, completed just 15 of 28 passes for 128 yards and was yanked in the second half. He’s been intercepted just twice since then and he’s having another MVP caliber season. And he would like nothing better than to get another crack at a Super Bowl ring, so don’t expect him and the Packers to let up no matter who’s lining up on the other side.
Free ATS Pick
There is no margin for error now for the Browns, who have to win out just to have a chance at making the postseason. And that’s tough for a team that doesn’t even know who’s going to play. It’s a different story for the Pack, who have a clear path to the No. 1 seed. Rodgers and the offense have looked good over the last month and an underrated defense could be the missing piece. Even if the Browns do get personnel back in time they’ll have a hard time winning at Lambeau, which is why I’m backing the home team.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers / UNDER
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