Another loaded slate is set to go down at online sportsbooks in the Week 12 afternoon slate with the matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers the crème de le crème of the bunch. This is a big spot for Sean McVay’s troops with LA falling all the way down to the NFC’s No. 5 seed after dropping a head scratching 31-10 decision on MNF to the division rival San Francisco 49ers before going on bye. The defeat was the first absorbed on the road through five tries (2-3 ATS). As for Green Bay, it lost hold of the NFC’s top seed to the Arizona Cardinals after dropping a last second decision in the Twin Cities which saw Matt LaFleur’s squad fall for the second time in the last three weeks. The Cheeseheads remain unblemished as a host where they stand 4-0 both SU and against the closing NFL odds. This is also a major revenge spot for the Rams who dropped a 32-18 decision to the Packers in the Division Round last year. Betting markets have gravitated towards the visitors per early wagering reports, and I have to agree with the sentiment.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup on Sunday, November 28, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Los Angeles Rams PK
Green Bay Packers PK
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the host Packers laying 1.5-points and the total set at 50; the third highest total of the Week 12 slate. That however is no longer the case with the O/U down 2.5 points to 47.5 with a majority of the bets and money of the belief the defenses keep the offenses in check. Los Angeles has played to the over at a 2-2-1 clip on the road with an average of 48.8 points scored. Green Bay has cashed under tickets in three of four home games with an average of 36.8 points scored. The point spread is down to a pick ‘em with 60 percent of the action and 54 percent of the handle forcing the line move. The Packers have been fantastic in the short home chalk role having gone 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 instances.
Player Prop Targets
So I’m thinking this is going to be a tough defensive minded affair right from the outset with both defenses holding the upper hand for a majority of the contest. One big turnover or huge scoring strike could ultimately decide the match. With that, I’ll be looking to fade both quarterbacks. Stafford owns a career 89.9 QB rating versus the Packers having opposed them 20 times while a member of the Detroit Lions. Green Bay’s pass defense has been lights out in recent weeks before giving up a big number to Kirk Cousins in a controlled environment last week. That won’t be the case come late Sunday afternoon. As for Rodgers, he’s coming off a huge game against a porous Vikings defense and has been playing on a broken toe. LA’s pass defense has been average (No. 16), but I can’t help but think Jalen Ramsey and company blanket GBY’s receiver corps and force the Packers to look to the ground with regularity. Both defenses rank amongst the top-10 in limiting QB fantasy points, so hit the under of both field general’s passing yards props.
Free ATS Pick
You know this game has been circled on the Rams schedule since falling in this exact venue last postseason. Dropping two straight to the Titans and Niners and having two full weeks to get their bodies and minds right leads me to believe this is an LA smash spot. I’m thinking we see an entirely different Rams team take the gridiron on Sunday with it finally having some time to get the new faces up to speed. Though Aaron Jones was seen practicing this week, I highly doubt he’s close to 100 percent. The Rams are the healthier of the two teams by far and need this win badly to have any shot of catching the Cardinals atop the NFC West standings. Green Bay is a banged up bunch that just might be looking ahead to next week’s bye. Look for the Rams to score the road upset in a lower scoring affair.
NFL Pick: Rams 27, Packers 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
