The biggest burn you could deal a hated rival in the NFL is to knock them out of the playoffs. If that’s not at the top of the list it isn’t far behind. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Minnesota Vikings can wave goodbye to the postseason with a loss to the Green Bay Packers in this NFC North Sunday Night Football matchup. And it’s not like the Packers have nothing to play for. Though they won the division a few weeks ago, the Packers can secure the No. 1 overall seed in the conference by winning out. They’ve won four in a row since losing to the Vikings 34-31 in Week 11 and are positioned as a 6.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line for the rematch.
This regular season Week 17 matchup will take place on Sunday, January 2, 2022 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +6.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5
Total 47
Odds Analysis
A loss to the Rams last week dropped the Vikings below .500 and seriously impacted their playoff chances. They are still alive, though, and must win both remaining games to stay in the hunt. The opening line had Minnesota getting 7-points, but that’s been wagered down a half-point to Green Bay -6.5. The Vikings were a 1-point home dog when the teams met in Week 11 pulling off a second straight upset victory, 34-31. Last season the Vikes strolled into Lambeau catching 6-points and won outright 28-22 ending a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. The Packers haven’t lost since that Week 11 tilt, but the last two games could have gone either way. They beat Baltimore 31-30 and last week nearly blew a 12-point lead until a late-game pick sealed a 24-22 win over Cleveland. The Packers were one of the best bets in the NFL going 9-1 ATS over their first 10 games. They failed to cover the last two outings and are 2-3 ATS in their previous five.
Key Injury
The Vikings will have to play their next two games without the services of receiver Adam Thielen, who was placed on IR after sustaining an ankle injury in last week’s loss to the Rams. With Kirk Cousins throwing for nearly 4,000 yards, Minnesota has a top-10 passing game with Thielen a big reason why. He conceded top receiver honors to Justin Jefferson, but his presence on the field made both players, and Cousins, better. Thielen has 67 receptions for 726 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns.
K.J. Osborn is likely to see more snaps as a replacement, but his presence won’t scare opposing defenses the way Thielen did. Expect more double-teams on Jefferson leaving Osborn to potentially have a big game for fantasy players. There was some good news for the Vikings. Dalvin Cook, the NFC’s leading rusher with 1,067 yards, was activated from the COVID list and is expected to play. With Cook in the lineup the Vikings will attempt to exploit Green Bay’s run defense that ranks 18th in yards allowed and next to last in yards allowed per carry.
Key Stat
One way to have success in the NFL is to win the turnover battle. The Packers had more giveaways than takeaways in a game just twice with both resulting in losses, so it shows you just how important that stat is, at least for the Packers. They intercepted four Baker Mayfield passes last week, including one in their own territory in the final minute to secure the victory. Their 26 turnovers forced is the sixth-highest total in the NFL, but the Pack is the best at valuing the football. They’ve coughed it up 10 times this season, but have only seven turnovers since giving the ball away three times in the season opener. Neither team committed a turnover when they met in Week 11 and we saw a tight 3-point game. One miscue could prove to be the difference and the Packers have the best turnover margin in the NFL at plus-16.
Free ATS Pick
There is a home field advantage for the Packers. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at Lambeau this season and they’ve won 12 straight with only two ATS losses dating back to last regular season. Their kryptonite seems to be the Vikings, though. Minnesota was the last visitor to win a regular season game at Lambeau and the last team to beat the Packers this season. Minny is very familiar with playing close games and I expect this one to be close. No turnovers and a lot of Dalvin Cook has the Vikings covering the line.
NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 / OVER 47
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