Up 24-0 with just over 10 minutes remaining in the second quarter of their division round playoff matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Houston Texans looked to be well on their way towards punching a ticket to the AFC title game; then all hell broke loose! The Chiefs went on to score four unanswered touchdowns to take a four-point lead into halftime, and then outscored the Texans by 16 in the second half to score the improbable 51-31 comeback win and cover as decided 10-point favorites. That loss has no doubt stuck in the craw of the Texans all offseason, but Bill O’Brien’s troops will get an opportunity to exorcise those demons in the 2020 kickoff. Once again, online sportsbooks have Patrick Mahomes and company installed exorbitant 9-point favorites with the total lined at 53.5.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup on Thursday, September 10, 2020, at 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. You can bet on NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Houston Texans +9.5
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
There’s been no line movement in terms of the pointspread since oddsmakers initially opened the game up to the betting public. KC hit the board as 9.5-point favorites to win the game, and that’s exactly where they sit with 54 percent of the handle coming in favor of the home team. Though these teams combined for 82 points in the postseason, the total has seen a bit of under money come in lowering the O/U to 53.5 after initially hitting the board at 54. Only 54 percent of the action has come in support of the under this far, but you can expect to see plenty of over money filter in closer to game day.
The Texans +380 are predicted to finish third in the AFC South behind the Colts +125 and Titans +150. They offer up a 33-1 return to win the AFC and sit 63-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are prohibitive -520 chalk to take down the AFC West a fifth straight time. They’re also the +230 favs to win the AFC ahead of the Ravens +270, and are the oddsmakers’ +500 choice to win the Super Bowl in successive seasons.
Injury Report
WR Keke Coutee and Isaiah Coulter are currently listed as questionable with foot and neck injuries respectively, but Deshaun Watson shouldn’t have any issues with his retooled wide receiver corps of Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb fully healthy and ready to go along with both Johnson’s – David and Duke – in the backfield.
RB Damien Williams decided to opt out this season due to COVID-19 concerns, but Andy Reid had already gone out and drafted his replacement in LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire before that news even surfaced. Of more concern is the stiff neck that currently has free agent offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele listed as questionable for this tilt.
Matchup to Watch
The way last season’s lone meeting played out, it’s pretty safe to assume the Texans won’t want to be getting into any type of shootout with the Chiefs. KC proved real quick that even a 24-0 hole wasn’t enough to prevent it from firing the afterburners and soaring right past them on the scoreboard. Houston went out and made one of the more highly criticized moves ever made in the history of the NFL when it sent DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona in return for RB David Johnson. With that, it’s time to fire up their newest acquisition with the newly retooled offensive line looking like it could be one of the better units in the league. As much Watson and company might want to get in a foot race with the home based Chiefs, it makes way more sense eating as much clock as possible by looking to the ground early and often. If not, Houston won’t win this game and might only have a shot to cover late in garbage time.
Free ATS Pick
As potent the Chiefs offense looks to be with all of the integral pieces to the league’s top-five ranked scoring offense of a year ago back, it might take some time to get into a groove. The running game is breaking a new rookie into the mix, and its possible KC enters this game a bit fat and happy after bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the city of Kansas City for the first time in 50 years. Houston already knows it won’t win a shootout against this team. With that, I fully expect the Texans to put forth as many time consuming drives as possible in order to shorten up the game. Defending Super Bowl champs have seen the under cash at a 6-1-1 clip in their last seven home Thursday night debuts, and its 9-3-1 in home openers dating back to 2007. Hopefully public money pushes this number back up a skosh leading up to kick-off. If so, hammer the under and look for a combined score in the low to mid-40s.
NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Texans 23
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