In the world of NFL gambling, trends are one of the most common go-to sources of information for determining who to bet on. This trait is especially the case for new or casual bettors. Trends give handicappers a simple, digestible breakdown of how both teams have been performing recently. By comparing both teams' head-to-head trends and looking for situations where one team's trend lines up well against the opponent, such metrics will increase the confidence level of bettors to go to the window and plunk down their cash on a team. However, trends are often overvalued with too much stock placed in them alone. Trends often give bettors a false sense of security as to where the value truly lies.
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Square gamblers fall in love with trends too easily, especially recent trends, which is another way of thinking about what you have done for me lately. If a team is coming off a 24-point blowout win and cover, bettors will be inclined to bet them again because they looked great in their last game. In like manner, if a team has paid in five games in a row, a novice handicapper will automatically assume the hot streak will continue and blindly continue to back the streaking club.
By contrast, if a club suffered a humiliating 28-point loss or is riding a five-game losing skid, the simple solution to the causal gamblers is to bet against them. After all, it makes sense to the shallow player that only bad teams lose five games in a row or get blown out. But gamblers must reject this oversimplified line of thinking.
Despite how a team looks recently, good or bad, it might be completely out of the historical norm. Instead, handicappers should focus on sample sizes larger than a handful of games. The reason is that the bigger picture more accurately represents a team's overall capability.
Like in the stock market, long-term history is a better indicator of success than short-term runs. Throughout a long NFL season, teams experience a roller coaster ride. Even the best teams can hit a rough patch and lose three or four games in a row. While losing clubs can get hot and enjoy a brief respite from their misery. But throughout a long NFL season, the law of averages always wins in the end.
A sober reality is that handicappers should judge teams based on their overall body of work. This reality means studying a larger sample size of games that take into account the entire season thus far, not just a handful of the most recent games.
For example, let's say the Kansas City Chiefs are facing the Las Vegas Raiders. The first thing a casual handicapper would look at if they wanted to bet the game was devouring the trends for both teams. Maybe the trends say that the Chiefs have failed to cover their last five games, are 1-7 in their previous eight games as chalk, and 2-5 vs. the odds in their last seven games against the Raiders.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have gotten the cash in six of their last nine games and have covered six in a row as dogs. Maybe the trends also state that the under has in seven of their previous nine Chiefs games and eight of the last 10 Raiders games. An inexperienced bettor would look at those head-to-head trends, and that's all they need to know. But there is much more they must know.
The problem with relying exclusively on trends is that there is far more to consider. Most important of all, the oddsmakers set the line with all of this in mind, including trends and public perception. Don't think you've discovered a secret trend that the oddsmakers overlooked. Only a fool and loser would ever do that.
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