The Indianapolis Colts visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday night in a game that can be seen on Prime Video. The Colts have been a major disappointment so far this season, as they come into this game at 1-2-1, while the Broncos have also been disappointing with a record of 2-2. Each team was counting on a new quarterback to lead them to big things this season, but so far Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson have played poorly. Oddsmakers are really not sure what to make of Thursday’s game, as the line on the game has Denver favored by three points and that is basically just for their home field advantage. We got a good win with the total on last week’s Thursday night game and so far this season we have been on a pretty good run on Thursday’s. Let’s look at this week’s Thursday Night picks.
On Thursday, October 6, 2022, the Indianapolis Colts will visit the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
NFL Week 5 Betting Odds
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
Denver Broncos -3.5
Total 43.5
Money Line: Colts +160, Broncos -185
Odds Analysis
There has been very little line movement on this game since it opened, as the Broncos opened a 3-point favorite. The total has slipped slightly from the opening number of 44 to the current number of 43.5. It would not be a surprise to see this total drop further before kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts could be without star running back Jonathan Taylor who tweaked his ankle in last week’s game against the Titans. Taylor said that with the short turnaround for this week’s game he is not sure he will be ready for Thursday night. His absence would be a huge blow to the Colts who have not been getting good play from Matt Ryan.
The Colts are averaging just 14.3 points per game, last in the NFL. They are giving up 21.3 points and allowing 297 yards per game. Taylor has 328 yards rushing to lead the team; Ryan has thrown for 1,125 yards, while Michael Pittman Jr. leads the team with 224 receiving yards.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have some problems on offense that go beyond Russell Wilson. They lost running back Javonte Williams to an injury last week and he could be out a long time. Melvin Gordon has been fumbling on a regular basis and last week his fumble was returned for a touchdown. It could be that Mike Boone gets the start at running back on Thursday for Denver.
Denver is averaging only 16.5 points per game and putting up just 335.8 yards per contest. They are giving up only 17 points per game and allowing just 284.8 yards per contest. Javonte Williams has 204 rushing yards to lead the team; Russell Wilson has thrown for 980 yards, while Courtland Sutton has 343 receiving yards.
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Colts at Broncos Free Pick
The Colts have won 7 of the last 10 games in this series and they are 7-3 ATS with six games going over the total and four going under. The Broncos have had more success at home in this series, winning 6 of the last 10. Five of those games went over, four went under, with one push.
This game seems a lot like last week’s in which I leaned toward the underdog and had a stronger play on the total. I don’t like either of these teams, as I think they are both overrated. In this situation I would lean with the Colts simply because they are getting points. I think the better bet is the total. I am not sold on either one of these offenses and both teams look to have good defenses. I know the Broncos gave up a lot of points last week to Las Vegas, but you could almost see that coming. I think they will be much better this week. I’ll go under the total with the Colts and Broncos.
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