After tying for last in the AFC South last season at 4-12, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans completed the turnaround on Sunday, winning their season-ending games to return to the postseason. The Texans were already in and needed a victory to clinch the division title. They beat the Jags to do that. Facing a win-and-in game against another division foe, the Colts won for the ninth time in 10 games to claim the final wild card spot. The teams will get the race to Super Bowl LIII started on Saturday from Houston.
Watch this Wild Card game live on Saturday, January 5, 2019, at 4:35 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Houston Texans -2.5
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
Both teams finished the regular season on massive heaters with the Colts going 9-1 in their last 10 games while the Texans overcame an 0-3 start by winning 11 of their final 13 games to end the season at 11-5 earning their third division crown in four seasons.
And it’s amazing what having a healthy starting quarterback can do for a club. Both struggled last season after losing their guy. Andrew Luck didn’t play a single snap as he recovered from shoulder surgery. And the Texans lost Deshaun Watson early in the year and never recovered. Now they are two of the hottest teams entering the postseason and one will be going home early.
Regular Season Series
If the two games played during the regular year are any indication, this should be a closely contested game. Both matchups were decided by a field goal with each team winning on the road, so the Texans have something to think about. The last meeting took place in Houston in Week 14 with the Colts snapping the Texans nine-game winning streak with a 24-21 decision.
Indy got 399 passing yards and two touchdowns from Luck to build a lead and held on despite Watson throwing for 267 yards and a team-best 35 rushing yards on five attempts. Indy’s season-ending surge was fueled by a resurgent defense that kept Watson scrambling. The Colts registered five sacks and limited DeAndre Hopkins to just four catches on 10 targets for 36 yards.
The first meeting helped turn Houston’s season around. Entering the Week 4 tilt at 0-3, Houston benefitted from Indy’s decision to go for it on fourth down in their own territory late in overtime. The Texans made the stop and Watson hit a pass to set up Ka’imi Fairbairn for the 37-yard game winner. The game was dominated by the play of the QB’s with Luck connecting on 40 of 62 attempts for 464 yards and four touchdowns. Watson was 29 of 42 for 375 yards and two scores.
Matchup to Watch
Despite putting up impressive numbers this season, Watson was hounded taking a league-high 62 sacks with 12 of those coming by the Colts defense. In last week’s game against the Jags, the Texans employed more designed runs for Watson, who is as mobile as they get at the position. It was a move made to slow Jacksonville’s pass rush and get Watson more time to make plays.
And the second-year signal-caller came up big. He threw for 234 yards on 25 of 35 passing, but his ability to run spread the defense. Watson scampered for a season-high 66 yards on 13 carries, most of them by design. He also added a 5-yard touchdown run. And considering the beating he took against the Colts, you can expect more of the same on Saturday.
Colts at Texans Live Betting
Since they play in the same division the teams are very familiar with each other, but there’s always going to be a new wrinkle. Much of the week leading up to the game will be self-scouting and since the Colts constantly pressured Watson during the season, look for the Texans to use a game plan that was successful against the Jags. Watson will run the football and Lamar Miller will get his chances as well. Establishing the run should allow Watson more freedom in the passing game and he’ll take his shots with Hopkins.
Luck is the Comeback Player of the Year after a stellar campaign that saw him throw for nearly 4,600 yards and 39 touchdowns and he’ll air it out. He had huge numbers against Houston during the regular year, but the points didn’t follow. I like the Texans to come up with a few key stops to get the win on the NFL betting lines.
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