The Kansas City Chiefs return home to the comforts of Arrowhead Stadium looking to remain undefeated when they battle the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of their division round battle under the lights of Sunday Night Football. KC ran roughshod upon the Colts in that matchup to easily cover the current NFL odds and the betting markets seem to believe it happens again with the Chiefs once again representing another huge liability for online sportsbooks in Week 5.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis +11
Kansas City -11
Over/Under 56.5
Indianapolis vs. Kansas City Odds Analysis
Though Kansas City’s only received 58 percent of the bet count midweek, linemakers have been forced to bump the number to beat up in a big way. Sharp money accounts have plenty to do with that. The Chiefs initially hit the betting board as 9-point home favorites with a game total of 55; both the side and total have been on the incline ever since. Kansas City now checks in as lofty 11-point favorites after closing 4-point favorites when these teams met in the playoffs back in January. The total is up 1.5 points to 56.5 with 65 percent of the bet count expecting a high scorer to play out.
Indianapolis Colts Odds
Save for dropping a 30-24 decision to the Chargers the opening week of the season, the Colts had exceeded expectations of NFL bettors by logging successive wins and covers against the division rival Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons. Then last week’s travesty went down at home against Oakland. The Raiders went on to make a mockery of the fact that they were initially installed touchdown underdogs by going into Lucas Oil Stadium and handing Indianapolis an ugly 31-24 defeat that was much worse than the 7-point final margin of victory suggests. The silver and black owned 21-7 and 31-17 leads before the Colts put some window dressing points on the board to make the final score a bit more respectable. The bothersome defeat dropped Frank Reich’s squad to 2-2 SU and ATS with the over cashing in three times.
Kansas City Chiefs Odds
If 315 passing yards and no touchdowns is now the floor for Patrick Mahomes prop and fantasy backers, the Chiefs look to be in very good shape. Though he had his streak of throwing at least two touchdowns in a game go by the wayside, Mahomes still found a way to put the team on his back and lead it to victory against a resilient Detroit Lions squad that still couldn’t find a way to deliver the win even though it won the turnover battle and held a decisive advantage in the time of possession battle as well. The Chiefs have dented the scoreboard for at least 28 points in each of their four games, and it can be argued that the offense is yet to get in a flow with Tyreke Hill still out of the mix. Kansas City enters this tilt undefeated at 4-0 and only just suffered its first pointspread defeat by failing to get ahead of the closing 7.5-point spread in Motown.
Key Trends
The two most recent matchups between these franchises have seen the Chiefs cruise to decisive victories to move to 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 overall meetings. The Colts have been installed 10+ point road dogs only five times dating back to 2017 and stand 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in those contests with the over cashing in three times. Kansas City has gone off the board favored by 10 or more points at home three times dating back to 2017 and checks in 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with the under coming in every time.
Last Meeting
The Chiefs plan of attack in the most recent meeting was to shorten the game up as much as possible by looking to the ground to keep the ball out of Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense’s hands. Damien Williams turned his 25 carries into 129 yards and 1 TD, while four other players – including Mahomes – scored touchdowns on the ground. Indy’s top notch offensive line gave up four sacks and only combined for a grand total of 266 yards. The Colts ended up dropping a 31-13 decision as 4.5-point Arrowhead Stadium underdogs with the 44 combined points grossly failing to surpass the closing 55-point total.
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