Now comes the hard part for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Finally climbing the mountain after years of struggles, the team won the AFC South and reached the conference championship game behind the NFL’s best ground game and a ferocious defense. Winning 10 games last season was easy compared to sustaining the success and doing it again. The defense remains virtually intact, which is a good thing, and Blake Bortles was given an extension during the offseason, which many feel isn’t a good thing. Bortles had a career year in 2017 and he’ll lead the Jags into their Week 1 opener against the New York Giants, who are coming off their most losses in franchise history.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars -3
New York Giants +3
Over/Under 43.5
Odds Analysis
The teams are meeting for the first time since 2014 so recent form doesn’t apply. The line has been steady since opening at Jacksonville -3.5 and was wagered down a half-point with over 60 percent of the betting public backing the home team. Over 80 percent of the money is backing the under on a total of 43.5, and given the action that number could see an increase before kickoff.
Injury Report
Marqise Lee – The loss of Lee to a season-ending knee injury is a significant blow to the Jags passing game. Lee led the team with 56 receptions last year and he’s the most experienced of the group with 171 career catches. He was praised by coach Doug Marrone for his blocking ability, which helped the Jags lead the NFL in rush yards per game. Keelan Cole had just one catch in the preseason, but he and Donte Moncrief are expected to get more snaps.
Dante Fowler – His eight sacks last season were a big reason why the team was named “Sacksonville,” but Fowler will watch the opener from the sideline serving a suspension. The good news is that the defensive front is the strongest position on the team and Fowler’s absence won’t be missed too much. But it does limit the rotations, which kept players fresh all last year and allowed them to do the damage they did.
Player to Watch
Many thought the Giants would take a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, seeing as how Eli Manning is getting up there and the crappy season they had. But instead the G-Men went with Saquon Barkley in an effort to repair a dismal run game. Barkley gave the faithful a taste of what to expect in the preseason opener by ripping off a 39-yard run on his first carry.
But he sustained a hamstring injury after that game and didn’t play another preseason snap. The Giants ranked 26th in rushing yards per game last season and averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. Upgrades to the offensive line and Barkley’s ability to burst through holes should allow those numbers to increase significantly in 2018.
Key Stat
All the key pieces from one of the most dominant defenses return and their goal is to make sure last season wasn’t a fluke. The Jags had the NFL’s best pass defense in 2017, allowing less than 170 yards per game. They were able to hound opposing quarterbacks with a pair of lethal edge rushers in Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, who both earned Pro Bowl recognition.
Campbell tied for the second-most sacks in the league with 14.5 and Ngakoue added 12, making them the only teammates to finish among the top-10. As a team the Jags had 55 sacks with 13 players picking up at least one. The only blemish for the defense was against the run where the Jags finished 21st in the league, and the Giants will try and exploit that with Barkley.
Free ATS Pick
The Jags better make sure the success they enjoyed last season doesn’t go to their heads. While it was an impressive season led by a stingy defense and the running of Leonard Fournette, they had some hiccups along the way to lesser teams, including losses to the Jets, Cardinals and 49ers, all of whom finished below .500.
Taking Barkley with the second pick will help the run game and the line will be better with newcomers Will Hernandez and Nate Solder. But the defense remains shaky and isn’t helped by Olivier Vernon dealing with an ankle issue. The Giants allowed nearly 121 yards on the ground last year and the Jags will pound it until they are stopped. I don’t think they will be. Jacksonville will ride Fournette and its D to a road cover while keeping the score below the total
NFL Betting Odds: Jaguars 20, Giants 10
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