The AFC title game matchup NFL bettors thought would take place last season will instead go down in Week 3 NFL betting action when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs invade M&T Bank Stadium for a heavyweight bout with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The defending champs suffered from a case of the lookahead blues on the road last week struggling to dispose of the division rival Chargers in overtime, while the Ravens cruised to a second straight win and cover against the Texans. Kansas City has taken each of the last two showdowns between these teams, but this Sunday’s tilt will mark the first time the former NFL MVP’s will square off against one another in Baltimore’s house. With that, online sportsbooks have the host Ravens installed 3.5-point favorites with fireworks expected as the total currently sits at 53.5; shockingly only the third highest O/U of the week.
Watch this regular season NFL Week 3 matchup on Monday, September 28, 2020, at 7:15 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium. You can bet on NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
Baltimore initially hit the betting board as 2.5-point favorites with the O/U set at 52. Don’t feel bad if you missed the opener as it was available for all of a second before sharp money pounced! With KC not looking dominant through the first two weeks regardless of coasting against Houston in Week 1, the Ravens have seen the number to beat move past a field goal all the way to -3.5. The line movement occurred even with 60 percent of the betting handle in support of the Chiefs plus the points. That right there is a telling sign that respected sharp money forced the line move initially and has prevented oddsmakers from reversing course. With all the public money hammering the Chiefs, the books seem to like their stance for the game. A hefty 87 percent of the total bets forced a 1.5-point line move north.
Injury Report
After allowing David Johnson to gash their run defense for 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in the opener, the Chiefs allowed the tandem of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley to combine for 157 rushing yards this past Sunday. With that, it’s going to be imperative for KC’s defense that Frank Clark returns healthy after being forced to leave last week’s game with some sort of illness; he’s currently listed as questionable. If absent, the Chiefs No. 27 ranked run defense is going to have all kinds of issues containing Jackson, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and possibly J.K. Dobbins from dominating on the ground with their No. 4 ranked ground assault that hasn’t even started to cook yet.
Player to Watch
Marquise Brown: In the Ravens losses to the Chiefs the last two seasons, the offense needed to work way too hard for each and every point it was able to put on the board. Say what you will about Kansas City’s start, you know sooner or later the offense will kick it into high gear. With that, Baltimore simply just can’t rely upon its running game to win this game. It needs to come up with chunk plays. It needs to find a way to hang a crooked number on the board. Twenty-four points didn’t get the job done in the first meeting, and neither did 28 in the second. Though Baltimore out-first downed and won the time of possession battle against the Chiefs last season, it still resulted in a 33-28 defeat that saw the Ravens need to score 15 fourth quarter points to kick in the backdoor. A Ravens pass catcher must step up to allow for the team to put some kind of distance between itself and the Chiefs on the scoreboard. Brown has reeled in 10 of 12 overall targets and turned them into 143 scoreless yards. He’s way overdue for a big score/s. If it comes tonight, it could ultimately help decide the game.
Free ATS Pick
The Chiefs have gone off the board dogged seven times since the Mahomes era infiltrated Arrowhead. They came out victorious in five of those matchups and covered the closing betting line at a 5-1-1 clip. That paired with the fact that they’re the defending champs won’t stop public money from continuing to hammer them plus the points. Winning the two most recent battles will bring in even more money on the road dog. Regardless, this is nothing if not a smash spot for the Ravens in my opinion. They wanted so badly to get a crack at Andy Reid in the playoffs last year that they completely overlooked a game Tennessee Titans team and it came back to bite them. Online sportsbooks are going to need the Ravens in every way, shape and form to close the week out, and I believe they come through in a big way. Kansas City escaped last week due to Anthony Lynn being Anthony Lynn in overtime, but that won’t be the case this time around when Lamar and the gang drop a 50-burger on their heads!
NFL Pick: Ravens 50, Chiefs 27
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