After their dramatic comeback overtime win over Buffalo last week you might expect the Kansas City Chiefs to have a letdown. Somehow I doubt that will happen with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line in their AFC Championship matchup against the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense are clicking having scored 42 points in each of their two playoff wins. And they will need another outburst against the Bengals, who handed the Chiefs their only loss in the past 12 games with a 34-31 decision in Week 17. The Chiefs are hosting the conference title game for a fourth straight season and are a 7-point favorite to advance to their third consecutive Super Bowl.
This AFC Championship game will take place on Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO and will be televised on CBS.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +7
Kansas City Chiefs -7
Total 54.5
Odds Analysis
There’s been no movement on the spread, which had the Chiefs positioned as a 7-point favorite on the opener. There has been some action on the OVER, however, forcing the total to spike a point to 54.5. With the Chiefs looking as potent as ever on offense and the teams combining for 65 points in their regular season matchup, it seems like a logical progression. KC has cashed the OVER in seven straight games scoring at least 28 points in every outing. The Bengals beat top-seed Tennessee last week as a 4-point dog for their sixth straight payout. They were catching points in four games during that stretch winning outright three times. Since the start of November the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS with their only loss to the Bengals. KC was laying 3.5-points in the 34-31 setback with the teams playing over the closing total of 51. The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six home playoff games while cashing the OVER five times.
Key Injury
For a group that’s already thin in the secondary the loss of Tyrann Mathieu had a big impact on the Chiefs last weekend. They ended up beating the Bills thanks to the heroics of Mahomes and the offense, but it easily could have turned out differently. Mathieu exited the divisional round contest in the first quarter with a concussion and has been placed in the league’s protocols. His status for Sunday is questionable. Without Mathieu directing traffic in the defensive secondary the Chiefs had several breakdowns allowing Josh Allen to throw for 329 yards and four touchdowns. Allen had a pair of scoring strikes in the final two minutes of the game and converted a 2-point try on a pass to Stefon Diggs.
Mathieu led the team with three interceptions during the regular season and is a steady force in the secondary. He was on the field when the clubs met in Week 17 and had little impact slowing down Joe Burrow. The Bengals’ QB completed 30 of 39 passes for 446 yards and four touchdowns in Cincy’s 34-31 win. And you can expect Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to exploit the gap if Mathieu can’t play. Chase had 11 catches for 266 yards and three scores in that game.
Key Stat
One way to slow down a strong passing game is to pressure the quarterback. Even though he was sacked nine times by the Titans, Burrow threw for 348 yards, but a number of drives stalled leading to four field goals. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times during the regular season and has been taken down 11 times in two postseason games yet the Bengals continue to win. With Kansas City’s defense struggling to stop teams – they’ve allowed an average of nearly 30 points over the last four outings – it’s imperative that they make Burrow pay for his dropbacks. The Chiefs sacked Burrow four times in Week 17 yet he still torched them. The routes the Bengals run take time and KC can’t let Burrow feel comfortable in the pocket.
Free ATS Pick
There’s a reason why the total spiked and I still feel betting the OVER is a good play. The teams had a shootout during the regular season and the Chiefs have scored a lot of points in their most recent home playoff games. And judging by what happened last week, they’re never out of a game. The Bengals are a confident club with a lot of swagger, but the Chiefs are poised to make another Super Bowl appearance to wipe away the stench of what happened last year.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7 / OVER 54.5
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