The Week 11 afternoon NFL betting slate is the nuts! Three games with three point spreads of a field goal or less? I’d buy that for a dollar! One of those matchups pits a pair of Super Bowl LVI contenders up against one another with Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys set to square off against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in an expected high scoring affair. Each team enters this epic non-conference showdown having flexed their muscles with Big D skunking the Atlanta Falcons 43-3 at home and the Chiefs taking it to the division rival Raiders under the Sunday night lights. KC’s 41-14 beat down propelled it back into the catbird seat of the AFC West, while Dallas owns a comfy three-game lead atop the NFC East standings. With each team comfortably in their respective conference’s playoff picture, it comes with little surprise to see online sportsbooks predicting a competitive battle. Dallas has received a bulk of the betting interest early on with the total also getting steamed keeping it the highest of the week by a country mile.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup on Sunday, November 21, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Total 56
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the host Chiefs laying 2.5-points and the total set at 52.5; the highest total of the Week 11 slate. Though 53 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money has filtered in on the visiting Cowboys, the number to beat hasn’t moved an inch. On top of that, it’s the Chiefs’ side that demands heavier -113 juice which lets it be known that more respected sharp money accounts have aligned themselves with Andy Reid’s troops as they look to rattle off a fourth straight victory. The O/U has seen a good amount of line movement with it up 3.5 points to 56 with 66 percent of the total bets forcing the northbound movement. That being said, only 34 percent of the early money resides on the over which means there’s bigger money bets in support of these teams failing to combine for a high scorer. Dallas is 5-4 to the over while Kansas City has split its 10 played games against the closing total.
Player Prop Targets
Mahomes has now played two mistake free games in a row after throwing at least one interception in seven straight starts dating back to Week 2. Knowing full well the Packers sported one of the best ball hawking defenses in the league (11 INT), the Chiefs QB1 played it safe with the average depth of target of his 37 passes clocking in at just 9.5 yards. He went on to complete 20 of those passes for only 166 yards. Most importantly, he didn’t throw an interception. Then last week against a Raiders secondary that only amassed a total of four interceptions through eight games, Mahomes let it rip testing the deep waters with limited success. That being said, he succeeded in the intermediate range in completing 14 of 17 passes for 144 yards and a couple scores. That leads me to believe he just might let it fly once again versus a Dallas defense ranked No. 21 against the pass that allows upwards of 7.1 yards per pass attempt. That however could prove to be unwise with the Cowboys – mainly due to Trevon Diggs – coming up with 14 interceptions. With that, I’ll be betting on Mahomes throwing at least one interception in this matchup at a nice plus-money return.
Free ATS Pick
You know that saying about not poking the bear? Well, the NFL did exactly just that through the first two months of the regular season making many question as to whether the Chiefs dominance had run its course. And guess what happened? KC woke up. Personally I just sat back and laughed and calmly bet KC to win the AFC West at a slight plus-money return after heading into the regular season as gargantuan favs on the NFL futures odds to do so. This team is still the cream of the division crop and one of the best teams in the AFC. As improved Dallas seems to be this season, it’s still overlooked by Mike McCarthy. It’s also got a number of injuries to key players currently being dealt with. The Chiefs have gotten healthier in recent weeks. The addition of Melvin Ingram has put a spark into Steve Spagnuolo’s defense as well which has Chris Jones back to being the QB disruptor he’s been a bulk of his career. Kansas City made a statement last week in Sin City, and I fully expect that train to keep rolling this week back home against a Dallas squad I have it a near touchdown better than. With that, I’ll gladly lay less than a field goal and will also hit KC on some plus-money alt lines as well.
NFL Pick: Chiefs 34, Cowboys 20
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