One win is all that separates the Kansas City Chiefs from the rest of the AFC West pack making their Sunday Night Football matchup with the Denver Broncos a huge game in the standings. The Chiefs have dominated within the division during their run of five straight titles and the Broncos have been victimized the most dropping the previous 11 meetings. And after a sluggish start to the season KC has picked things up winning four in a row with payouts in each of the last two. The Chiefs are a 9.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line to extend their winning streak in the series.
This regular season Week 13 matchup will take place on Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +9.5
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
After brief uptick that saw the spread reach double digits, the market settled moving the line back to its opening of KC -9.5. It appears as though the Chiefs have solved their defensive issues allowing just 47 points during their four-game winning streak. And they provided some relief to backers covering the last two. They beat Las Vegas and Dallas by double figures while laying 2.5-points in each game. Overall KC is 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS. They’ve also cashed the UNDER in five of their previous six games, which is a major reason why the total was wagered down three points to 47.5. The Broncos have quietly crept into the race by winning three of their last four games, and in order to forge a tie atop the division standings they’ll have to do something they haven’t accomplished in six years – beat the Chiefs. They’ve dropped 11 straight going 2-9 ATS.
Player to Watch
The Broncos have been searching for a quarterback ever since Payton Manning retired. They settled on Teddy Bridgewater this season, and while he hasn’t put up Manning-like numbers, or even come close to doing so, the Broncos are a game over .500 entering Week 13 with a chance to tie for the AFC West lead with a win. Now, it’s easy to pick the QB as a person to watch since he’s the focal point of any team’s offense, but we really need to keep an eye on Bridgewater this week. He left Sunday’s game against the Chargers with a leg injury but returned a little later after his replacement Drew Lock struggled. Yes, that’s the same Drew Lock who was once touted as the next leader of the club.
Bridgewater has thrown for 2,518 yards with 15 touchdowns for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL averaging just over 20 points. Those aren’t blistering numbers, but he has the respect of his teammates and coach after demonstrating his toughness. He limped back onto the field for the second half and eventually directed an 80-yard touchdown drive that salted the win over LA. More importantly he doesn’t mess with the football. Bridgewater has been intercepted five times and the Broncos have the fifth-fewest giveaways. And that’s important since the team struggles to score cashing the UNDER in five consecutive contests.
Key Stat
I guess we should address the elephant in the room. Beating Kansas City and winning in Arrowhead have been problematic for the Broncos, who have dropped 11 consecutive games in the series. The law of averages suggest a win is inevitable. The streak began in November of 2015 when Manning had perhaps the worst game of his career with four picks. It’s been that kind of experience for Denver ever since. Patrick Mahomes has helped keep the streak alive by winning all seven of his starts against the Broncos. His first career start came against Denver at the end of 2017 when he threw for 284 yards in a 27-24 victory. That’s as close as the Broncos have come to winning during the skid. Mahomes has thrown for 1,825 yards and 10 touchdowns in his career against the Chiefs and is 5-2 ATS.
Free ATS Pick
A resurgent defense is the biggest reason for KC’s four-game winning streak. Criticized earlier in the season, the group has allowed an average of less than 12 points per game during the winning streak and absolutely shut down the vaunted Cowboys last time out. Whatever Andy Reid does during a bye works. He has a career record of 19-3 after a week off and I can’t see Denver doing enough offensively to win this game. I am concerned about the line, though. KC hasn’t done well when facing a big spread and Denver’s defense will likely keep them within the 9.5-points.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +9.5 / UNDER 47.5
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
