With a new quarterback under center in Nick Foles and new offensive coordinator that loves to sling the pigskin around the ball yard in John DeFilippo, it’s tough to get a handle on Leonard Fournette heading into the 2019-20 regular season. When healthy, the former LSU Tiger has proven to be one of the premiere running backs in the league as evidenced by his excellent rookie campaign in which he combined for over 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 10 TD. That said, he still missed three games and only got in eight last year due to a balky hamstring. The talent is there, that goes unquestioned; but with it comes an extremely injury prone frame that’s had trouble staying on the field from his days in Baton Rouge. The only thing that should prevent him from going over 1,000 yards at online sportsbooks is the injury bug, and so far, it’s had him locked in its sights seemingly forever.
Total Rushing Yards: 1000.5
Offensive Philosophy
Jacksonville ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of run percentage a year ago doing so on over 41 percent of its play-calls. It also ranked out league-average in terms of passing percentage doing so at a near 59 percent clip. You can expect the latter to increase with DeFilippo now at the helm. The guy was seriously fired from Minnesota late last season due to his unwillingness to run the football. That doesn’t bode well for Fournette backers expecting the third-year player to surpass his rushing yards prop this upcoming season.
Especially running behind an offensive line ranked No. 21 overall at Pro Football Focus. However, should the Jags passing game flourish under Foles, it will make things a bit easier for Fournette and company to succeed with opposing defenses forced to account for the passing game. Still, the backfield is his to lose with both Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon sent packing. That should afford him the 20+ carries per game gotten used to since making his home in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville Jaguars Football Schedule
Week 1: Chiefs
Week 2: @Texans
Week 3: Titans
Week 4: @Broncos
Week 5: @Panthers
Week 6: Saints
Week 7: @Bengals
Week 8: Jets
Week 9: Texans
Week 10: Bye Week
Week 11: @Colts
Week 12: @Titans
Week 13: Buccaneers
Week 14: Chargers
Week 15: @Raiders
Week 16: @Falcons
Week 17: Colts
Schedule Breakdown
Fantasy footballers as well as those that hit his yardage prop over the number will get a good idea of what to expect from Fournette and the Jaguars offense right out of the chute. If he isn’t able to go off against the Chiefs porous run defense the opening week of the season, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility fantasy owners will be looking to trade him for pennies on the dollar soon after. That has everything to do with a tough first half schedule that matches the Jags up against five of the best run defenses from a year ago - two games against Houston as well as individual matchups against Tennessee, Carolina and New Orleans.
Its easiest opponent before the Week 10 bye figures to be Cincinnati who owned the fourth worst run defense going by last year’s outputs. Should he make it this far without injury, stock in Fournette should be sought out over the final seven weeks of the campaign with four of the league’s worst run defenses on the docket. Some major ground could be gained during this stretch should Fournette play his cards right.
The Bets
As much as I want to believe Fournette has it in him to once again be the menacing bowling ball that took the league by storm his rookie season, I simply can’t do it. Maybe it’s because I threw a unit on him to win the Heisman Trophy back in 2016 after torching the Florida Gators for 180 yards and 2 TD only to see him succumb to an injury soon after and allow Derrick Henry to run away with it. I hold grudges!
His injury prone ways and new offensive coordinator are keeping me away both in fantasy and in the futures market. Marrone’s likely to make it a point to force DeFilippo into running the ball more, but they didn’t give Foles all that money just to hand off the pigskin. The only reason I won’t throw any beer money on it is because of that juicy second schedule. Either way, it’s going to be close should he get at least 14 games under his belt. Jacksonville’s passing attack will be the main attraction which will prevent No. 27 from cashing over tickets at top rated sportsbooks when it’s said and done.
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