You can call it poor timing on the part of the Los Angeles Chargers. They tied for the best record in the AFC, but because they lost the tie-breaker to Kansas City, the Bolts were relegated to the No. 5 seed in the playoff rankings. And for the second straight week, the Chargers will make a cross country trip to face a team they had a better regular season record than. Last week, the Bolts knocked off the Ravens in a wild card matchup. Now they will try to prevent Tom Brady and the New England Patriots from reaching an eighth straight conference title game with a Divisional Round tilt in Foxboro.
Watch this Divisional Round game live on Sunday, January 13, 2019, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Chargers +4
New England Patriots -4
Over/Under 45.5
Live Betting Odds Analysis
It will be strength versus strength in this matchup. The Chargers could feel sorry for themselves having to travel despite owning the best record in the conference. But they built that record with the help of impressive play on the road.
The Bolts went 7-1 away from home during the regular season and they haven’t lost an away game outside the state of California this season. Their only loss came in Week 3 to the cross-town Rams. They continued their run last week in Baltimore, winning outright 23-17 as a 3-point dog. That pushed LA’s overall road record this season to 8-1 SU and ATS. Since that loss to the Rams, the Bolts have won six straight road games in hostile places like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Denver, not to mention last week’s tilt in Baltimore. So, don’t expect them to be overwhelmed with the task ahead.
Meanwhile, the Pats were the only team in the league with a perfect home slate during the regular season, and they needed it since they went just 3-5 on the road. And we all know how difficult it is to win in Foxboro at playoff time. The Pats are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home playoff games.
Matchup to Watch
Credit defensive coordinator Gus Bradley for coming up with the right schemes to beat Baltimore. The Bolts looked like the league’s best defense in that matchup, limiting Lamar Jackson through three quarters and coming up with the big turnover to preserve the outcome. It was a tough task considering the Ravens had just chewed up nearly 160 yards on the ground when the teams met in Week 16, and the Chargers were without one of their top defenders following the loss of Jatavis Brown to a season-ending injury in the final regular season game.
The game plan worked in Baltimore with Jackson looking uncomfortable through most of the contest. The Bolts held the Ravens to 90 yards rushing for the game and their offense didn’t get untracked until it was too late. Through three quarters Jackson was just 3 of 9 passing for 25 yards.
One way to beat the Pats is to pressure Brady and force him out of his comfort zone. The Bolts did that in Baltimore, tallying seven sacks of Jackson, and they did it with a four-man rush on majority of snaps. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa will be key figures in stopping the Pats. Ingram had seven tackles and a pair of sacks last week while Bosa added one.
Key Stat
Not many teams have had success against the Patriots with Brady calling the shots, and the Chargers are no exception. With Philip Rivers quarterbacking, the Bolts are 0-7 against Brady and the Pats. The San Diego Chargers did get a win over New England during the 2008 season when Brady was shelved with a knee injury, which is the only win for the franchise in the series since 2005.
LA’s road record will be tested on Sunday. Since 1983 the Bolts are just 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in their nine trips to Foxboro.
Chargers at Patriots Live Betting
Two veteran quarterbacks proved that age and wisdom can overcome youth and enthusiasm. The Chargers have the personnel to win this game and they are on a roll. But as long as Brady and Belichick are running the Pats it’s hard to bet against them in a home playoff game. And this is the time for Rob Gronkowski to shine. He presents a matchup problem for the Bolts smaller safeties and with a week off, Gronk will be a factor on the live betting lines. We will see great play from the QBs and this should be a tight contest, making the Bolts the right pick against the closing line.
NFL Score Predictions: Patriots 26, Chargers 24
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