The Week 11 Sunday slate of games concludes with a critical AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers. Pittsburgh extended its unbeaten streak to five games by tying Detroit last week, but they could end up regretting not getting a win over the worst team in the league. The Chargers are heading the other direction with Sunday’s loss to Minnesota their third in four games. Ben Roethlisberger missed Sunday’s contest after testing positive for COVID and he could be on the shelf again leaving Mason Rudolph to lead the offense. The prospect of not having Big Ben caused the line to shift with the Bolts moving to a 6-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 11 matchup will take place on Sunday, November 21, 2021 at 8:20 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers +6
Los Angeles Chargers -6
Total 47
Odds Analysis
Roethlisberger isn’t the only key player whose status is up in the air. With players on both sides dealing with the virus or injuries, some shops have taken this game off the board until those issues have some clarity. When the line originally surfaced the Chargers were laying 3.5-points, but Pittsburgh’s lackluster tie with the winless Lions didn’t inspire confidence among the betting public. Though the Bolts have their own issues right now, they were wagered to -6. This line will remain fluid likely right up until kickoff with so many unknowns. We also witnessed movement with the total dropping to 47 after hitting the board at 48.5.
Key Injury
We mentioned Roethlisberger’s situation and that certainly is big. He tested positive for COVID on Saturday and the Steelers had little time to prep Rudolph. It’s not like the backup hasn’t taken a snap before and according to Mike Tomlin game-plan adjustments weren’t necessary. At least this week if Ben remains sequestered Rudolph will have a week of reps with the first team offense. Rudolph won five of his eight starts when taking over for Roethlisberger in the 2019 season and he completed 30 of 50 passes last week against the Lions. There were some timing and accuracy issues, but those are fixable with more reps.
The Steelers will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick, another COVID victim. He tested positive earlier this week and won’t be cleared by Sunday. And T.J. Watt is listed as questionable after sustaining a leg injury last week. Watt exited the game in the second half and didn’t return. That’s a big loss on defense since Watt is second in the league with 12.5 sacks. Getting pressure on Justin Herbert is necessary to disrupt the gunslinger’s rhythm. Doing that just becomes more difficult without Watt.
Key Stat
No team in the NFL defends the run worse than the Chargers. That’s nothing to be proud of and a sore spot with defensive coordinator turned coach Brandon Staley. Six times the Bolts yielded more than 140 yards on the ground and they allow an average of 155.1. Back in Week 5 they allowed 230 rushing yards to the Browns and still emerged victorious 47-42 in a high scoring affair. The Steelers would prefer to grind it out on the ground taking some pressure off Rudolph. And they have a workhorse back in Najee Harris to do it. Harris rushed for 103 yards last week, his second 100-yard game of the season, and ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing. That part of the game has been a bit inconsistent for the Steelers, who average less than 100 yards on the ground. But you can expect Harris to get plenty of carries as the Steelers attempt to exploit that weakness in LA’s defense. And stopping the run could be even harder for the Chargers, who will be without Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery after they both submitted a positive COVID test.
Free ATS Pick
With a week of first string practice reps Rudolph should feel more at ease behind center. And he’ll be happy that Bosa won’t by chasing him down all game. Limiting turnovers and getting a big game from Harris will allow the Steelers to stay within the 6-point line. The possibility of no Roethlisberger caused an overreaction on the total. With key defenders missing on both sides the game is ripe to cash the OVER.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +6 / OVER 47
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