The NFC Championship Game is taking place in the Big Easy thanks to the New Orleans Saints’ regular season victory over the Los Angeles Rams. That was the tie-breaker between the two best teams in the conference that both finished with 13 victories. The Saints rode the strong arm of Drew Brees to overcome a valiant comeback attempt from the Rams during that Week 9 contest, scoring the final 10 points to secure the win. The teams met once previously in the postseason with the Saints claiming the first playoff win in team history following the 2000 season.
Watch the NFC Championship Game live on Sunday, January 20, 2019, at 3:05 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Bens Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Rams +3.5
New Orleans Saints -3.5
Over/Under 57
Live Betting Odds Analysis
Ending the longest playoff win drought of the final four teams, the Rams advanced over the Cowboys last week. It was the team’s first postseason win since 2004. They didn’t have many chances after that with last year’s playoff appearance their first since that season. But the culture has changed under Sean McVay, who led the Rams to the second-most wins in franchise history.
The Rams were so good this season that they played every game as a favorite with six of those contests closing with a double-digit line. They opened as a 3.5-point dog on the opening line for this game after closing as a 2-point favorite when the clubs met in early November. The Rams finished the regular season with a 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS record on the road.
The Saints had the toughest go of any favorite in the Divisional Round, but they overcame a sluggish start to get the win. They secured the No. 1 seed in the next to last weekend of the regular season and rested some starters in the finale. Coupled with a first-round playoff bye, the Saints had gone several weeks without playing a meaningful game and it showed early against Philly.
Matchup to Watch
For as much talent as the Rams have on the defensive side of the football, the group underachieved during the regular season. Aaron Donald did his part by leading the NFL in sacks and only two teams intercepted more passes. But the group struggled against the run by surrendering an average of over 122 yards per game.
When the teams met during the regular year, Alvin Kamara ran for 82 yards and a pair of scores, Mark Ingram added 33 yards and the Saints rushed for 141 yards. The ability to move the football on the ground opened up passing lanes for Drew Brees, who sliced through the Rams secondary for 346 yards and four scores.
Going against the league’s leading rusher last week, the Rams proved they can defend the run by holding Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards and just 2.4 yards per carry. Taking Zeke out of the game was part of the plan to make Dak Prescott try and beat them, and he couldn’t. Prescott isn’t Brees, and eliminating the Saints ground game is only part of the battle. But winning that matchup puts the Rams in a much better position.
Player to Watch
The Rams have a potential difference-maker in cornerback Aqib Talib, who was injured and didn’t play in the first meeting between the teams. Talib returned to the lineup for the last quarter of the regular season and the pass defense was significantly better. Of course there are many factors that led to that and having Talib certainly helped.
With Talib at his corner spot for the final five games of the regular season, the Rams allowed an average of just over 200 passing yards per game. In their final outing prior to his return the Rams were torched by Patrick Mahomes. And Brees had little resistance when he threw for 346 yards and four scores in the Saints 45-35 win with Troy Hill starting.
Rams at Saints Live Betting
The Rams couldn’t run the football in the earlier meeting and it led to their downfall. And things looked bleak when Todd Gurley was sidelined with a knee injury at the end of the regular season. Up stepped C.J. Anderson and the Rams devastated the Cowboys with a franchise record 273 rushing yards with both players going over the 100-yard mark. The Rams will attempt to use the ground in a number of ways on Sunday. First, they want to control the tempo and keep Brees off the field. And second, they can deflate teams by owning the trenches. That strategy makes the under on the first half total a winner on the live betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
NFL Score Prediction: Saints 27, Rams 23
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