The Week 18 matchup between NFC West rivals San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will have the biggest impact on the conference playoff field and seedings. A Niners win gets them invited to the postseason and could cost the Rams a division title depending on what Arizona does. Should the Rams win they’d secure the division and could knock SF out of the dance if New Orleans beats Atlanta. I think I got that straight. Either way it’s a big game for both sides with the Niners going for the season sweep and a sixth straight series win as a 4.5-point underdog on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 18 matchup will take place on Sunday, January 9, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA and will be televised on FOX.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +4.5
Los Angeles Rams -4.5
Total 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Niners have to be feeling pretty good about their chances given their recent play overall and against the Rams. After a rough start that saw them lose four in a row at one point, SF got back into playoff contention by winning six of their previous eight games going 6-2 ATS in that span. They opened as a 6-point dog at most sites with that number wagered down to LA -4.5. The Niners have won the last five meetings, including a 31-10 triumph in Week 10 when they were catching 3.5-points on the closing line. They are 4-1 ATS during their series winning streak with the UNDER cashing four times. The Rams bounced back from a three-game slide winning five straight ahead of this contest. They rallied for a 20-19 win at Baltimore last week but failed to cover the 7-point spread. It was their first ATS loss in five games.
Key Injury
It’s risky to rely on a rookie QB who hasn’t played much to get you into the postseason. But that’s a scenario facing the Niners as incumbent Jim Garoppolo deals with a thumb injury. With top draft pick Trey Lance getting the start last week, the Niners rolled to a 23-7 victory over Houston covering the 14-point spread. Lance had decent numbers completing 16 of 23 or 249 yards and two touchdowns. He also had 31 yards on eight rush attempts. But it was the Texans and the Niners defense did most of the damage. I guess that’s why Jimmy G is back at practice this week to see if he can play. Having an experienced veteran in a pressure-filled game just makes more sense.
Last Meeting
The Niners handed it to the Rams back in Week 10 using an efficient offense to control the game and clock. Garoppolo set the tone on the first possession driving the Niners 93 yards in 18 plays for an early lead. The drive lasted over 11 minutes. On LA’s first offensive series Matthew Stafford tossed a pick-six to Jimmie Ward and the Rams never recovered. It was complete dominance by the Niners, who possessed the football for 39 minutes thanks to the running of Eli Mitchell. The Niners amassed 156 rushing yards on 44 attempts and outgained the Rams 335-278. And the defense did its job, too. Ward had two picks and the unit allowed just 52 yards on the ground. The result was a convincing 31-10 outright victory.
Player to Watch
Maybe he’s in a slump but Stafford hasn’t been the player the last two weeks he was earlier in the season. Somehow, though, the Rams overcame his shaky play to beat Minnesota and Baltimore. Or maybe it was because of him. When the chips were down Stafford came through in those games. He tossed a TD pass to Odell Beckham Jr. early in the fourth quarter at Minnesota staking the Rams to a 27-13 lead. They ended up winning 30-23. Last week the Rams trailed Baltimore 16-7 entering the fourth quarter before rallying. Stafford again connected with OBJ with less than a minute remaining for the game-winning score. He did throw five interceptions in those games including his NFL high fourth pick-six in the Baltimore game. If Stafford can eliminate the turnovers there’s no reason why the Rams can’t win this game.
Free ATS Pick
The Niners aren’t as good offensively as they were against the Rams in the first meeting. And LA’s defense isn’t as bad as it was. While Stafford has been shaky with picks he gives the Rams an edge at the position with Garoppolo having an injured digit and Lance just a rookie. And with the division crown there for the taking I’m betting the Rams snatch it.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -4.5 / OVER 44.5
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