One thing Marlon Mack has going for him entering the 2019-20 regular season is the fact that there’s nobody currently on the roster breathing down his neck to vulture snaps away from him. Have you seen all the moves the Indianapolis Colts have made in hopes of finding a capable backup? The RB1 slot is his to lose! With that, an ample workload for one of the more lethal offensive attacks in the league should go a long way in helping the third-year back produce the best statistical outputs of his career. Another factor backing an investment on the over of his rushing yards at online sportsbooks is what looks to be a vastly improved defense. Locked in for at least 18-22 carries per game, Mack is a true workhorse that gets the advantage of running behind one of the best offensive lines in the game.
Total Rushing Yards: 1000.5
Offensive Philosophy
Nick Sirianni did a heck of a job calling plays for Frank Reich’s offense last season. Indianapolis ended up ranked No. 7 overall and scored an average of 27.1 points per game. Andrew Luck and the air attack produced a bulk of that output in going for nearly 4,600 total passing yards with over 61 percent of the play calls of the passing variety. While the Colts only ran the ball 38.4 percent of the time, Mack made the most of his opportunities in rushing for 908 yards and 9 TD.
Mind you, he accrued those outputs in only 12 games of which 10 were started. With Indy’s passing attack likely to once again be a bear for opposing defenses to contain, run lanes and red zone scoring opportunities will be readily able for Mack to take advantage of; especially running behind Pro Football Focus’s No. 5 ranked offensive line. He’s the lead back on one of the league’s elite offenses which should allow for him to make a number of clock milking runs with games on the line.
Indianapolis Colts Football Schedule
Week 1: @Chargers
Week 2: @Titans
Week 3: Falcons
Week 4: Raiders
Week 5: @Chiefs
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: Texans
Week 8: Broncos
Week 9: @Steelers
Week 10: Dolphins
Week 11: Jaguars
Week 12: @Texans
Week 13: Titans
Week 14: @Buccaneers
Week 15: @Saints
Week 16: Panthers
Week 17: @Jaguars
Schedule Breakdown
Mack and the Colts will be put to the test right from the outset. After opening up against the Chargers and their stout run defense, he gets to enjoy running up against a Titans run defense he torched for 180 yards and 2 TD on 41 overall carries. From there, three straight beautiful matchups are lined up against the Falcons and Raiders at home and the revenge game against the Chiefs on the road. Mack had one of his biggest games of last season against Oakland whom he torched for 132 yards and a couple scores, but was taken out of the game versus Kansas City due to the team falling into a 24-7 halftime hole.
After the Week 6 bye, there’s red for as long as the eye can see when taking a gander at the schedule strength of Indy’s final 11 opponents. The only layups look to be against the Dolphins and Buccaneers who are likely to have major issues stopping the run once again. The nine other matchups consist of the Texans (twice), Broncos, Steelers, Jaguars (twice), Titans, Saints and Panthers. Just about every one of those teams possessed top tiered run defenses a year ago. In all, the schedule rates out as the sixth toughest for running backs, but it remains to be seen how much easier a job Mack will have should the passing attack go off as expected.
The Bets
Though the schedule looks daunting on paper, I still think Mack has it in him to surpass his rushing total at top rated sportsbooks. That of course depends on him staying injury-free unlike last season when he was forced to miss four games. Even if he does miss out on a couple, there should still be a solid chance to surpass the 1,000 yard plateau as good the offense is likely to be. Don’t read too much into Luck’s injury – he’ll be under center Week 1 which should prevent Mack from seeing too many loaded boxes.
With a bulk of the workload going his way paired with a passing offense that’s going to create a number of wide open running lanes, this has the makings of Mack’s best season as a professional. There’s nobody there to steal carries from him and he’s arguably the best running back in the AFC South. All of this has me making a rare over play on a rushing total when it comes to No. 25 and his ability to breakout in 2019-20.
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