The Miami Dolphins visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night in a game that can be seen on Prime Video. The Dolphins are the only unbeaten team in the AFC at 3-0, while the Bengals are 1-2. Miami has played a tough schedule so far, but they have run the gauntlet with wins over New England, Baltimore and Buffalo. Now they have to play on short rest and face the defending AFC Champion Bengals on the road on Thursday night and there are some injury concerns regarding quarterback Tua Tagovailova. On the other side, the Bengals probably saved their season last week with a win over the Jets, as teams almost never recover from an 0-3 start. We are coming off a split last week that should have been a sweep and those that bet the total know it was a bad beat. Let’s look at this week’s Thursday Night picks.
On Thursday, September 30, 2022, the Miami Dolphins visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
NFL Week 4 Betting Odds
Miami Dolphins +3
Cincinnati Bengals -3
Total 47
Money Line: Dolphins +155, Bengals -180
Odds Analysis
The money has been on the Bengals since this line opened. Cincinnati opened anywhere from a 2 to 2.5-point favorite and that line is up to 3 and there have been some 3.5’s out there. The total has also seen some movement, as the line opened at 48 and is down to 47. It should be noted that the line movement is mainly due to the status of Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailova. He is listed as questionable for this week. He is not in concussion protocol, but there are still concerns about his condition, as he is dealing with ankle soreness.
Miami Dolphins
After three weeks of the season the Dolphins look to be for real. Yes, they have been fortunate to win the last two games against Baltimore and Buffalo, but the Ravens and Bills are two of the top teams in the NFL. It is still early, but Miami looks to be a serious contender in the AFC.
The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points per game which is 8th-best in the NFL. They are giving up 21.3 points per game and there are some defensive concerns, as they are next to last in total yards and passing yards allowed. Chase Edmonds leads the team in rushing with 79 yards, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 925 yards and Jaylen Waddle leads the team with 342 receiving yards.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals faced what only can could be considered a must-win last week and they did what was expected and routed the Jets. Cincinnati is averaging 21.3 points per game which is 10th in the league. The defense is giving up 18.3 points and allowing 310.7 yards per contest. Joe Mixon has 163 yards to lead the team in rushing, Joe Burrow has thrown for 812 yards, while Ja’Marr Chase has 212 receiving yards.
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Dolphins at Bengals Free Pick
Miami has won 6 of the last 10 in this series and they are 7-3 ATS with 7 of the 10 going under the total. The Dolphins had done pretty well in Cincinnati until the last two trips when they lost 22-7 in 2016 and 27-17 in 2018. Both of those games went under the total.
At first glance you can see why the public is taking the Bengals, as the status of Tua is a bit murky and the Dolphins come into this game perhaps a little overrated. People also think the Bengals will continue to bounce back. I am not so sure on the Bengals side. I don’t like what I have seen so far from Cincinnati and I give them next to no credit for beating the Jets. I want no part of laying points with the Bengals, as I think they are a team to bet against this season. I’ll take a lean toward the Dolphins in this one. I also think there could be some value on the total. This series has been low scoring in the past and this total is up near 50. I’ll also play the game to go under the total.
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