The AFC East saw two teams play way above expectations over the course of the 2020-21 season. The first was the toast of the division in the Buffalo Bills who won it for the first time since 1995 and went on to compete in the AFC Championship Game. The second however was the Miami Dolphins who made huge gains in the second full season under the watch of the Brian Flores Regime. Miami won five games to bring up the rear of the division in his first year, but showed promise covering the closing NFL odds nine of 16 times; it barely eclipsed its 4.5-game season win total odds in the process. While the Fins stumbled out of the gates a year later, it finished with a flourish posting wins in nine of its final 12 games to finish 10-6 SU and smash its 6.5-game win total. Online sportsbooks look to be bullish on Miami continuing its upward ascension in 2021-22 with its win total clocking in at 9.5. While the Bills -160 are the running favorites to win the division a second straight season, the Dolphins +383 clock in right behind them. Miami went off the NFL betting board dogged nine times. With a schedule strength expected to be of the easier variety, that likely won’t be the case this upcoming season. If there’s a team that challenges Buffalo for the division title, the Dolphins are highly likely it!
Miami Dolphins Season Win Total: 9.5 Under -140
Oddsmakers lined the Dolphins season win total at 9.5 for the 2021-22 regular season. Keep in mind, an extra game is being played now that the NFL moved to an 18-week schedule. Regardless, the impost is a full three games higher than a season ago. That right there tells you all you need to know about how those setting the lines feel about the Dolphins this season and moving forward. Miami went 3-4-3 against its win total from 2010-2019. It’s cashed over tickets each of the last three seasons, but the betting markets look to be taking a wait and see approach this year with heavy -140 juice currently attached to the under. I guess they need to see more from Tua Tagovailoa before fully buying into what Flores and his staff are doing in Miami.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
Miami Dolphins Football Schedule
Week 1: Dolphins at Patriots, Sunday, September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 2: Bills at Dolphins, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Dolphins at Raiders, Sunday, September 26, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 4: Colts at Dolphins, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Dolphins at Buccaneers, Sunday, October 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: Jaguars at Dolphins, Sunday, October 17, 8:30 a.m. ET
Week 7: Falcons at Dolphins, Sunday, October 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: Dolphins at Bills, Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Texans at Dolphins, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Ravens at Dolphins, Thursday, November 11, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 11: Dolphins at Jets, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Panthers at Dolphins, Sunday, November 28, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: Giants at Dolphins, Sunday, December 5, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: Bye Week
Week 15: Jets at Dolphins, Sunday, December 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 16: Dolphins at Saints, Monday, December 27, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 17: Dolphins at Titans, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Patriots at Dolphins, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Miami Dolphins Season Win Total Analysis
Even with the additions of Will Fuller in free agency and Jaylen Waddle in the draft giving the offense a major infusion of speed down the field, it remains to be seen if those moves will be enough to snap a four-year playoff drought. While the defense ranked out as the No. 5 unit in the league, it gave up plenty of yardage through the air No. 23 and rated out as average defending the run No. 16. It did a great job of buckling down in the red zone No. 7 and forced more turnovers than any other team. Can this unit get by once again by keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone when knocking on the door? Will it be able to average 1.8 turnovers per game? The likely answer to both questions is no! With that, both sides of the ball are going to need to exhibit dramatic improvement if the Fins are to compete with the Bills for division supremacy and become a bona fide threat to take down the AFC. In my opinion, Miami isn’t quite there just yet. Until Miami starts getting after quarterbacks with reckless abandon – the defense logged 41 sacks last season No. 11 – it’s going to have a whale of a time fending off a more complete Buffalo Bills outfit.
The schedule isn’t very fun either. It starts off with a visit to Gillette Stadium where Miami’s managed just one win in its last 10 visits. Then it gets the Bills at home in Week 2 followed by a trip to Las Vegas for a bout with the Raiders in front of what figures to be a very boisterous home crowd. They’ll return home to oppose the Indianapolis Colts who are the current favs to take down the AFC South, and will then make the trek to Tampa Bay for a matchup against Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs. At best, Miami could be looking at a 2-3 SU start to the season. It doesn’t get much better schedule wise up until Week 11 when it gets the Jets followed by the Panthers, Giants and Jets once again. If those games aren’t swept, the Dolphins won’t surpass their season win total odds for the fourth straight time. I need to see more from this team before I fully buy-in. Because of it, I lean towards the under ever so slightly. Negative regression is also bound to hit from a pointspread perspective with Miami likely to be in the favored role more times than not - Buyer beware!
Miami Dolphins Season Win Total Prediction: Under 9.5 -140
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