The gauntlet of a schedule the Minnesota Vikings have recently been forced to deal with picks right back up in Week 10 with Mike Zimmer’s troops venturing into Tinseltown for a date with Justin Herbert and the AFC West leading Los Angeles Chargers. By going into the City of Brotherly Love and coming out with a last second win against the Philadelphia Eagles, Brandon Staley’s squad currently rates out as the No. 3 seed in the AFC behind the Baltimore Ravens and top-seeded Tennessee Titans. As for SKOL, it currently sits on the outside looking into the NFC playoff picture due entirely to its five overall losses coming by an average of just 3.6 points per game. They could be the top seed in the conference had things broken their way! With that, this matchup is likely to be very competitive as evidenced by online sportsbooks only installing the Bolts field goal home favorites against a five-loss opponent. Due to Minnesota’s inability to win close games, the betting markets have lined up in droves to back the Chargers on the NFL odds.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup on Sunday, November 14, 2021, at 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +3
Los Angeles Chargers -3
Over/Under 53
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the host Chargers laying 3-points and the total set at 50.5; the second highest total of the Week 10 slate. While there’s been no line movement regardless of LA receiving 83 percent of the bets and 97 percent of the money, heavier -118 juice is surprisingly attached to Minnesota’s side of the impost. It looks like linemakers are comfortable booking all that Chargers action! Though the Vikings have only managed one outright win the four times they closed underdogs to date, they did manage to cover the spread three times which includes both road spots against Arizona and Baltimore. The Chargers have also split their four home games; all as favorites against Dallas, Las Vegas, Cleveland and New England. The total is up 2.5-points to 53 with NFL bettors staying away from the under like the plague. Pretty surprising considering the O/U has split in Minnesota’s eight games, while the under has cashed in five of eight for Los Angeles.
Player Prop Targets
This looks to be the game to target the running backs. Minnesota is the owner of the league’s No. 30 ranked run defense that’s been gashed for nearly 137 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry (No. 30). If you can believe it, Los Angeles has been even worse in getting ripped for a league-worst 161.6 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (No. 32). With that, Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler are going to be two very popular players to back in the player prop markets. Cook just went for 110 yards on 17 carries against the Ravens No. 5 ranked run D, so it comes to reason he should have a field day in this one provided his off the field antics don’t keep him out of the game. If benched, I have no issues pivoting to Alexander Mattison who’s shown on numerous occasions that he can handle a RB1 load in his absence. This should also be a redemption spot for Austin Ekeler as well after failing his prop and fantasy supporters last week in Philly. But instead of looking at just his rushing yards prop, I’d look at his combined yardage instead with the Vikings defense also charitable to pass catching running backs.
Free ATS Pick
One of these weeks everything will fall into place for the Vikings and they’ll actually win a close game; regardless of having one of the worst coaching staffs overlooking their every move. I seriously believe that if Bill Belichick was coaching this team, it would be the odds on favorite to win the NFC! That’s how talented I think this team truly is. Minny has been tasked with running up against upper echelon opposition each of the last three weeks. Though it only managed to win one of those games in overtime at Carolina, the other two were lost against the Cowboys at home (20-16) and Ravens on the road (34-31); also in overtime. I’m just not buying what the upstart Chargers are selling. Brandon Staley continues to get all the accolades, but his “Riverboat Ron” impersonations on fourth down will cost him a game. I’ll be banking that time is now and will hit the Vikings plus the points with a sprinkle on the moneyline.
NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Chargers 23
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