If the Pac-12 is to somehow find a way to come out victorious in this prop bet against the Big 12, it’s going to need a number of teams to take ginormous leaps of faith on numerous players. Of all the more reputable mock drafts currently floating around cyberspace, there only looks to be one surefire Pac-12 bet to go off the board in the first round; Justin Herbert. It’s nothing more than a crapshoot immediately after. With that, it comes as no surprise to see the Big 12 installed huge -330 chalk on the current NFL Draft betting odds to have more players selected than the Pac-12 in the first round. On top of that, you have to lay half a pick! The Pac-12’s 28.7 percent implied probability of cashing a ticket in this prop bet might be just a bit overstated with Herbert more or less sitting on an island all by his lonesome.
Big 12 Players -.5 -330
Pac-12 Players +.5 +248
If nothing else, the Pac-12 can take pride in the fact that it will have a player taken off the board in the first round before any Big 12 player hears his name called. Whether he goes to the Chargers at No. 3 or No. 6, or the Dolphins at No. 5, Herbert is likely to hear his name get called the earliest of any player likely to get snagged in this conference showdown on draft day. Herbert just put the finishing touches on an excellent four-year career this past season. He’ll depart Eugene having thrown for over 10,500 yards, 95 touchdowns to just 23 interceptions and a career 153.1 QB Rating through 43 career starts. Though Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are likely to go ahead of the Ducks quarterback phenom, he’s still going to go early to give the Pac-12 the leg up in coming out on top of this prop battle.
But that’s when things are going to take a turn for the worst. CeeDee Lamb was nothing short of a joy to watch through his three seasons in Norman. His frosh campaign saw him reel in 46 receptions and turn them into 807 yards and 7 TD. His sophomore and junior seasons saw him evolve into a wide receiver talent that has NFL execs drooling about the prospects of adding him to their roster. Especially wide receiver needy teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles. The former Sooner’s talents look destined to be on one of those teams, so look for one of them to make a move to do just that should the opportunity present itself.
OU’s defense was much improved this past season. One of the reasons why was because of Kenneth Murray at the second level. Though his overall numbers tapered off a bit in his junior season, he still proved to be a tackling machine throughout his career registering 325 in 40 total games; an average of over eight tackles per game! Murray will likely be the second Sooner taken off the board in the first round.
The good run for the Big 12 is likely to continue in the back half of the first round with a pair of TCU Horned Frogs likely destined to latch onto teams. Jeff Gladney is going to find himself roaming the secondary for a team sorely in need of revamping or bolstering its pass defense. He was a four-year starter for the Horney Toads and really opened the eyes of scouts the last few seasons by tallying a combined 26 passes defensed. Though most mocks have him going in the second round, he could pull off a shocker and help aid the Big 12 in cashing this ticket. Other potential first round selections for the conference include TCU’s Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock with the former possessing speed to burn and excellent hands with the latter racking up 25 solo tackles and nine tackles for loss playing along Gary Patterson’s defensive line.
Though extremely farfetched, the only shot the Pac-12 has of cashing this prop bet is having guys like Shane Lemieux, Laviska Shenault and Brandon Aiyuk getting their names called much earlier than expected. If not, the conference has no shot of cashing in as the +248 underdogs they currently come in at. The Pac-12 was laughable throughout 2019 with only three of the 12 total teams producing winning records. With that, it comes with little shock that the conference doesn’t have many players forecasted to go off the board within the draft’s first 32 picks. The Big 12 coasts to the win here, but you got to spend money to make money!
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