The Kansas City Chiefs exorcised some playoff demons with their win over the Colts last weekend and their quest for the first Super Bowl appearance since the AFL-NFL merger has one more hurdle. It’s more of a mountain in Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who are playing for the AFC title for the eighth consecutive season. The Pats knocked off the Chargers on Sunday and must win the AFC West in order to reach the Super Bowl for a third straight year. However they haven’t had much success on the road this season with all five of their losses coming away from home.
Watch the AFC Championship Game live on Sunday, January 20, 2019, at 6:40 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri,
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under 56
Live Betting Odds Analysis
It’s hard to gamble against Brady and the Pats at this time of year considering this is their eighth consecutive AFC title game appearance. One weakness for them has been playing on the road, where the Pats went just 3-5 straight up and against the spread this season, with some of their worst games played away from home. There was that mess in Jacksonville, which turned out to be ugly given the way the Jags’ season went. And that loss in Detroit wasn’t easier to swallow.
As good as the Pats have been in the postseason with Brady at the helm, they haven’t won a road playoff game since the 2006 season. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span with all three defeats coming against teams led by Peyton Manning. Their last road playoff game was three years ago when they lost to the Broncos in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs are already feeling like winners just by playing this game at home. It’s their first conference title game since the 1993 season and just the second in team history. With the other game played in Buffalo, Chiefs fans will witness the first AFC Championship in their city. And their play at home was a big reason for the Chiefs posting the best record in the conference. They were 7-1 SU during the regular season with their only loss coming by a point to the Chargers. KC snapped six-game home playoff losing streak with its win over Indy last weekend.
Weather Report
Both teams play outdoors in areas that can get really cold in the winter. But, according to reports, Kansas City is in line for an “arctic blast” weather episode on Sunday, which could send game time temperatures below zero. The up-tempo offensive styles of both teams could be severely impacted by the weather, and with an early evening local time start, it isn’t going to get warmer.
The total hit the board at 56 and it would be a smart move to jump on the under now before that number starts dwindling, and it will if the forecasts are solid.
Patrick Mahomes was born, raised and played collegiately in Texas, so I doubt he’s experienced many arctic blasts in his lifetime. Nothing seems to faze him, though. And I seriously doubt Brady is going to be overly affected since he’s seen it all, or close to it, during his career. Still, if the forecast holds true, expect the teams to run the ball more than usual and play the live betting lines at BookMaker.eu accordingly.
Matchup to Watch
It’s a good thing both teams got their run game tuned up last week since they will need to be effective on the ground in what could be treacherous conditions. With all of Brady’s greatness, the Pats showed they can rely on someone else, and that was Sony Michel. The rookie had one of the best performances in recent playoff history by scooting for 105 yards and three touchdowns in the first half of the win over the Chargers.
Michel had only eight carries in the second half and finished with 129 yards and a 5.4 per carry average. Owning the trenches, the Pats were able to dictate the flow throughout and will need more of the same against a Chiefs defense that has improved drastically. KC allowed only 266 yards to the Colts, but they were hit for over six yards a pop on the ground. The Colts abandoned the run game once they fell behind and Andrew Luck couldn’t rally his squad.
Patriots at Chiefs Live Betting
We always hear that the offense has an advantage in poor weather conditions because the players know where they are going. That maybe the case, but it’s still hard to execute. And if the forecast holds true, points might be tough to come by. Both teams had sensational games running the football last week and the team that has the most success will have the upper hand.
Brady and the offense manhandled a good Chargers team last week and his playoff experience just can’t be overlooked. He’s been there and done that a number of times. The weather will be a factor limiting the score and big plays on the live betting lines, but the Patriots will prevail behind their fearless leader.
NFL Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Chiefs 20
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