The New England Patriots 11-year dominance of the AFC East came to a close last season mostly due to Tom Brady packing his bags for Tampa Bay where he would ultimately lead the Buccaneers to the second Super Bowl title in franchise history. With Cam Newton under center and a bunch of players on the defensive side of the ball opting to sit the 2020-21 season out, the Pats struggled mightily over the course of the regular season only logging seven wins and matching it with seven pointspread covers at online sportsbooks. In doing so, the franchise failed to produce 10+ wins for the first time since 2002! Because of it, the Pats 2021-22 roster will have an entirely different look to it with an influx of big name free agents signed and possibly the quarterback of the future – Mac Jones – one of many new contributors selected in the draft. But will the wholesale changes on both sides of the ball be enough to compete with the Buffalo Bills – or Miami Dolphins - for division supremacy?
New England Patriots Season Win Total: 9.5 Under -111
For the first time since 2009, New England failed to surpass the season win total odds bestowed upon it by oddsmakers. The Patriots O/U went off the board at 9 with plus-money juice attached to the over. Many a sharp bettor saw the writing on the wall there with that offering, so it didn’t come as a shocker to see the franchise struggle overall with Brady no longer in the mix. Regardless of failing its bullish supporters a season ago, linemakers have this year’s win total half a win higher than a season ago. Maybe it has something to do with the expanded schedule, or maybe it doesn’t. But this time, there isn’t an exorbitant amount of juice attached to the low side of it unlike last season. With that, it seems the betting markets have conflicting points of views on how the team fares this upcoming season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
New England Patriots Football Schedule
Week 1: Dolphins at Patriots, Sunday, September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 2: Patriots at Jets, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Saints at Patriots, Sunday, September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Buccaneers at Patriots, Sunday, October 3, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 5: Patriots at Texans, Sunday, October 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: Cowboys at Patriots, Sunday, October 17, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 7: Jets at Patriots, Sunday, October 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: Patriots at Chargers, Sunday, October 31, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 9: Patriots at Panthers, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Browns at Patriots, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Patriots at Falcons, Thursday, November 18, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 12: Titans at Patriots, Sunday, November 28, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: Patriots at Bills, Monday, December 6, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 14: Bye week
Week 15: Patriots at Colts, Sunday, December 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 16: Bills at Patriots, Sunday, December 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Jaguars at Patriots, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Patriots at Dolphins, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
New England Patriots Season Win Total Analysis
The recipe is there for the Patriots to get out to another one of their patented hot streaks to kick off the season. They open the year against the division rival Dolphins at home. While the Fins are on the come, Miami has had all kinds of issues winning in Foxboro where they’ve logged just one win in their last 10 visits. NE is currently the short 2-point favorite for a reason. Then they get to take on the Jets in New York in Zach Wilson’s second career start; advantage Belichick. The Drew Brees-less Saints will invade Gillette in Week 3, and I like the Pats in that one as well. All eyes will be on New England in Week 4 when Tom Brady returns to the house that he helped build for a clash under the lights of Sunday Night football. The end result is likely to equate to the team’s first loss of the regular season. From there, it’s the Texans on the road, Cowboys at home and Jets at home before traveling to Tinseltown to run up against Justin Herbert and the Chargers; likely another loss. A toss-up game will go next at Carolina followed by a real tough one at home against the Browns; a game I have penciled in as loss No. 3. By my count, that would find the Patriots 7-3 heading into Week 11’s road trip to Atlanta; another tricky spot.
Much like the rest of their divisional mates, the Patriots’ schedule rates out as easy to average according to the folks over at Sharp Football Stats. They’ve got it pegged as the 19th toughest overall schedule. However, the tail end of it will ultimately decide whether or not it surpasses its O/U or not. From Weeks 13-18, New England will have to take on the Buffalo Bills twice, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins in the finale. All but the Jags figure to be vying for playoff spots, so it goes without saying just how important showing well in those games will be towards cashing an over ticket or hitting the low side of the impost for the second straight year.
Bottom line, I’m still not a believer in Cam Newton at this point of his career. The guy has taken a beating over the course of his 10-year career, and the after effects have shown a dramatic decline in his overall body of work. Even when healthy, he’s not a very accurate passer evidenced by his 82.9 QB rating a season ago. While the additions of Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne could improve his counting stats, I’m betting against him being under center for the entirety of the season due to yet another injury. If Jones is able to navigate this team to 10 or more wins, so be it. I’ll be paying up to see if he can really pull off the feat. Sorry, but the NFL is just a tad bit different than playing ball in Tuscaloosa.
New England Patriots Season Win Total Prediction: Under 9.5
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