A season ago, the New Orleans Saints entered the regular season trailing only the San Francisco 49ers on the odds to win the NFC at online sportsbooks. They opened the year up against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home with a gaudy 10.5-game season win total. Sean Payton’s squad would log the 34-23 win and cover as 4-point favorites and then proceed to win 11 more regular season games to cash over tickets for their supporters a fourth straight season. The Saints have tallied double-digits victories each of the last four seasons. However, Drew Brees is no longer under center for what proved to be one of the most prolific and efficient offenses the NFL has witnessed over the last 15+ years. Though the Saints just became the first team to four-peat since the NFC South was formed back in 2002, linemakers look to be bearish on the team entering 2021-22 with their win total odds clocking in less than 10 for the first time since 2017. Even so, its win total and +313 odds to win the division a fifth straight season foreshadow the possibility of this being a wild card team. I’m not buying it! If Payton can morph Jameis Winston into a capable quarterback that makes sound decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over with reckless abandon, I’ll tip my hat in his general direction. Until then, I’m selling the Saints and look forward towards the team attempting to prove me wrong.
New Orleans Saints Season Win Total: 9 Under -127
As stated, the Saints are expected to finish in second place of the NFC South behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. I’m not so sure about that! While I’d never throw shade in the direction of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, I’m not exactly sold on the players surrounding them. It looks like the betting markets hold the same belief with the win total of 9 shaded to the under with -127 juice. As great the defense was a season ago, it really started to lose traction the second half of the season and then completely went off the rails in the second half of the 30-20 home loss to the Bucs in the Division Round. Forced to play against the fourth toughest schedule strength per the folks over at Sharp Football Stats, New Orleans will have its work cut out if it’s to cash over tickets a fifth straight time.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
New Orleans Saints Football Schedule
Week 1: Packers at Saints, Sunday, September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 2: Saints at Panthers, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Saints at Patriots, Sunday, September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Giants at Saints, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Saints at Washington, Sunday, October 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: Saints at Seahawks, Monday, October 25, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 8: Buccaneers at Saints, Sunday, October 31, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 9: Falcons at Saints, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Saints at Titans, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Saints at Eagles, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Bills at Saints, Thursday, November 25, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 13: Cowboys at Saints, Thursday, December 2, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 14: Saints at Jets, Sunday, December 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Saints at Buccaneers, Sunday, December 19, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 16: Dolphins at Saints, Monday, December 27, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 17: Panthers at Saints, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Saints at Falcons, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
New Orleans Saints Win Total Analysis
The first five weeks of the season can ultimately decide the Saints fate in 2021-22. They open with the Green Bay Packers in a game the Superdome will undoubtedly be amped for with fans finally back in the stands. After that, it’s a pair on the road at the division rival Panthers followed by the new-look Patriots. Then they’ll get the underrated Giants at home before hitting the road for D.C. to battle the Washington Football Team. If they don’t procure a winning record in those five games, it’s going to be darn near close to impossible for the team to surpass its season win total odds.
With standalone games against the aforementioned Packers, Seahawks and Titans along with eight games locked in against the AFC East and NFC East, the Saints are likely going to find themselves in a number of shootouts along the way. As much as I want to give Payton the benefit of the doubt, I’m curious to see how he fares without Brees as his quarterback for a full season. While the future Hall of Famer’s production waned recently due to injury and age, he still did an excellent job of valuing possession of the pigskin evidenced by his 24:6 TD/INT ratio. The same can’t and won’t be said of Winston until further notice. And if you think Taysom Hill is the answer, guess again - my 14-year old nephew throws a prettier deep ball!
With the offense a huge question mark and the defense experiencing a ton of turnover, I’m thinking this is a .500 campaign at best for the Who Dat Nation. I’d like to thank the Saints for easily cashing my over ticket a season ago, but I have no choice but to fade them a year later. Their final two prime time games against the Bucs and Dolphins won’t be pretty – book it!
New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Prediction: Under 9
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