If the New Orleans Saints are going to sneak into the playoffs it looks like they’ll have to rely on a rookie quarterback who has yet to take a snap in the NFL to get some crucial victories at the end of the season. The Saints are reportedly putting their top two quarterbacks on the COVID list ahead of their Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup with the Miami Dolphins leaving Ian Book as the likely starter. Both teams are in need of wins as they currently sit outside the playoff picture with identical 7-7 records. And we saw the spread take a major turn with news of the Saints QB situation leaving the Dolphins as a 2-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 16 matchup will take place on Monday, December 27, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins -2
New Orleans Saints +2
Total 37.5
Odds Analysis
When the line surfaced last weekend the Saints were positioned as a 3-point favorite. Once news of their QB issues came to light we saw the betting public flock to the Fins moving them into the role of favorite. The latest line had the visitors laying 2-points with the total also falling a few points to 37.5. The Dolphins got back in the hunt thanks to a six-game winning streak, currently the second longest behind Kansas City’s seven-game run. They were 5-0 ATS through the first five games of the streak but failed to cover the 10.5-point line in last week’s 31-24 decision over the Jets. The Saints have won and covered in two straight following a five-game slide that nearly put them out of playoff contention. They stunned Tampa last week pitching a shutout and they needed the strong effort with a slumbering offense. The Saints have allowed just nine points in the last two games and they’ve cashed the UNDER in four straight.
Key Injury
I guess we can put a COVID-related illness in this segment since we’re seeing more players shelved by the virus and its impacting teams. The Saints will follow Washington and Cleveland from last week using a backup quarterback who hasn’t taken a snap this season. And we saw both those teams lose so the outlook isn’t pretty. While it hasn’t been made official at the time of this writing, the Saints are reportedly putting their top two quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian on the COVID list leaving rookie Ian Book in position to start his first NFL game.
A fourth-round draft pick, Book had a storied career at Notre Dame posting the most wins ever by a starting QB. And he’s not new to the program having been on the active roster all season Book got some reps in the preseason playing the opener against Baltimore completing 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Book will be the fourth different starting QB this season and the fifth in the 2021 calendar year. Remember Drew Brees started both playoff games back in January.
Player to Watch
One guy who can really help out his rookie QB is Alvin Kamara. It’s been a mixed bag since Kamara returned to the lineup a few weeks ago after missing four games. He had a huge afternoon against the Jets in Week 14 running for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. He also caught four passes for 25 yards leading the Saints to a 30-9 romp. For whatever reason the Saints didn’t get him the ball much last week. With Sean Payton missing the game due to COVID, Dennis Allen served as head coach. Maybe that had something to do with it. Kamara ran the ball only 11 times for 18 yards, his second lowest totals in each category this season. And he wasn’t utilized in the passing game either with just two catches. The Saints failed to score a touchdown but the D shutdown the Bucs in the 9-0 victory. If the Saints are going to win they need to get the ball in Kamara’s hands.
Free ATS Pick
I liked Book when he was at Notre Dame winning a bunch of games. He has a strong throwing arm and can also run the football when he has to. His mobility will certainly help to extend plays and keep the defense honest. And the Saints’ D is playing well. You have to be doing something right to hold Tom Brady off the scoreboard.
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 / OVER 37.5
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