What team do you think will finish with the best regular season record in the NFL this season? Last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are listed as the top choices and then there is a bit of a gap down to the third choice in the betting odds, the Buffalo Bills. Those are the only four teams listed with single-digit odds. Let’s look at all of the odds, the top contenders, live darkhorses and a longshot.
NFL Best Regular Season Record Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +300
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +501
Buffalo Bills +902
Baltimore Ravens +1203
Cleveland Browns +1203
Los Angeles Rams +1203
San Francisco 49ers +1203
Seattle Seahawks +1404
Green Bay Packers +2007
Dallas Cowboys +2511
Indianapolis Colts +2511
Denver Broncos +2814
Los Angeles Chargers +2814
Miami Dolphins +3319
New England Patriots +3319
New Orleans Saints +3319
Tennessee Titans +3319
Arizona Cardinals +4000
Atlanta Falcons +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000
Washington Football Team +4000
Philadelphia Eagles +6598
Chicago Bears +8000
Carolina Panthers +10000
New York Giants +10000
Cincinnati Bengals +10000
Jacksonville Jaguars +15000
Las Vegas Raiders +15000
Detroit Lions +20000
Houston Texans +25000
New York Jets +25000
The first thing to remember about this prop bet is that you don’t have to worry about your team winning in the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl. This is simply a bet on the regular season and that actually makes things a bit easier. If you go back to 2004 there have been 26 teams that have finished with the best regular season record, and that includes ties. Of those teams, only three ended up winning the Super Bowl, the Seahawks in 2013, the Patriots in 2014 and 2016 and the Eagles in 2017.
Top Contenders
There are only three teams listed at single-digit odds, the Chiefs, Bucs and Bills. The Chiefs are the favorite at odds of +300. Those odds seem really low to me, even though Kansas City has an excellent team. Only one team in the last 25 years has been to three straight Super Bowls. I can’t take Kansas City at their current odds.
The Bucs are the defending champs and they have everyone back, so it makes sense they are the second choice at odds of +501. I think there is more value on Tampa than on Kansas City. Tom Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the league and all 22 starters from last season’s team returns. The Bucs toughest game could be in Week 3 at the Rams. Tampa should be favored in every other game this season.
The Bills are the third choice in the betting at odds of +902. I think the Bills are overvalued at this number. They went 6-1 in one-score games a season ago and they benefited from having three West Coast teams visit them last season.
Live Darkhorses
San Francisco 49ers +1203
The 49ers lost more games to injury last season than any other team in the league. San Francisco nearly won the Super Bowl two years ago and they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. This is probably a season where Trey Lance sits at quarterback, but the 49ers have proven in the past they can win with Jimmy G under center.
Los Angeles Rams +1203
You have to like what the Rams did in the off-season, as they replaced the underachieving Jared Goff with Matthew Stafford. The Rams have a lot of talent surrounding Stafford and their defense is excellent.
Longshot
Los Angeles Chargers +2814
The Chargers have a good young quarterback in Justin Herbert and they now have an All-Pro center in Corey Linsley. The biggest thing going in their favor is that Anthony Lynn is gone. Who knows how many games this team can win with a competent head coach in Brandon Staley.
There are not a lot of other longshots worth considering. Perhaps the Saints have some value at odds of +3319 and Tennessee might be worth a look at odds of +3319. I don’t know that either team will finish with the best record, but they may have some value.
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