You can wager on just about anything when it comes to the NFL. This is the year your favorite team makes a run to the Super Bowl so why not throw down on them. But will that team have the best record in the league? Being the best during the regular season doesn’t always translate into postseason success making those two wagers drastically different.
We’ll go back to 2002 when the NFL realigned and research some data. The team that owned or tied for the best record won the Super Bowl just six times in those 17 seasons while finishing as runner-up an additional six times.
Since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady joined forces, the Patriots have appeared in nine Super Bowls winning six of them since the 2001 season. They’ve strung together 16 consecutive double-digit win seasons while claiming the best regular season record in the league six times. The two are still around and the Pats are the odds on favorite to compile the NFL’s best regular season record again in 2019.
The Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints tied for the top mark in 2018 going 13-3 and both clubs appear to be strong heading into this season, which is why they are right behind the Pats at the top of the odds list at top NFL sportsbooks.
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New England Patriots +450
Los Angeles Rams +700
New Orleans Saints +800
Kansas City Chiefs +800
Indianapolis Colts +800
Los Angeles Chargers +900
Philadelphia Eagles +1000
Chicago Bears +1500
Green Bay Packers +1800
Atlanta Falcons +1800
Cleveland Browns +1800
Dallas Cowboys +2000
Minnesota Vikings +2000
Pittsburgh Steelers +2300
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Houston Texans +3500
Tennessee Titans +3500
Baltimore Ravens +3500
Jacksonville Jaguars +3500
San Francisco 49ers +4000
Carolina Panthers +5000
New York Jets +6500
Buffalo Bills +8000
Denver Broncos +8000
Detroit Lions +15000
Oakland Raiders +15000
Washington Redskins +15000
Arizona Cardinals +20000
Cincinnati Bengals +20000
New York Giants +20000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +20000
Miami Dolphins +30000
What the Patriots have accomplished for the last nearly two decades is amazing in the salary cap and free agency era. They have the luxury of playing in a division where no team wants to challenge them and Brady makes everyone around him better. The names constantly change around Brady, but he and Belichick have a system that finds talent and wins. Brady is in his 40s now and Father Time will pay him a visit. However, as long as he can stand the rigors of an NFL season, Brady will play, and he’s played as well as he ever has over the past few seasons.
The Rams have been a force winning 24 games in two seasons under McVay. They finished second in scoring last year after leading the NFL in 2017. There are some concerns regarding the health of Todd Gurley, the line lost two key starters, and despite having the most dominant defensive player in Aaron Donald, that group has been below average. Another 13-win season from them is unlikely.
Striking gold in the last few drafts, the Saints have built a solid contender. However, their success hinges on the right arm of Drew Brees, and like Brady Father Time is close by. Brees struggled down the stretch last year raising concerns about his game. And let’s face it, they aren’t going anywhere with Taysom Hill taking snaps. The Saints are much better defensively than the Rams and if Brees shows he still has it, New Orleans has some value. They also have a tough schedule.
Only two teams have won at least 10 regular season games over the last four years. The Pats are one of them and the other is ... Kansas City. The Chiefs won 12 games last season and they would have been fighting for the best record with a stronger defense. That group’s collapse in the AFC Championship also cost them a Super Bowl berth. KC addressed the weakness over the offseason and has Patrick Mahomes running the offense, which is scary. At +800 I like the Chiefs odds.
The chances of a team sneaking into the top spot are slim, but it can happen. Back in 2015 the Carolina Panthers went 15-1 to claim the best record. That was a surprise since they were just 7-8-1 the previous year. Looking at the teams with the best record over the last few years, they all have consistent quarterback play. No rookie QB has led a team to the best regular season record since 2002 and there are too many good veterans on solid teams to allow that to happen in 2019.
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