A misconception is that a lot of betting folks don’t believe in wagering on NFL preseason games. The fact is there are a lot of people out there throwing down on the exhibition tilts and there is money to be won as long as the time is spent researching. Wagering on football is big business and it starts during the preseason, which gets underway with the annual Hall of Fame Game between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, August 1, 2019 from Canton.
While the start of the NFL season is always a fun time, it’s probably a good idea to stay away from the initial game. There are too many unknowns and we aren’t going to see any of the team’s first-stringers in this matchup. If you have inside information on the bottom of the Falcons and Broncos roster, you could put that to good use, but it’s probably more beneficial to wait a few weeks.
Research
Like I said, wagering on the preseason can be profitable if you put in the effort. With larger rosters, position battles, and coaching strategies, it pays off to do some digging. Handicapping the preseason is much different than a regular season matchup. There are no injury reports to scan, coaches mix things up more than they would during the regular season, and did I say the rosters are much larger? I did, and they are. And what that means is a little more work on your end could pay off with a bigger pocketbook.
Typically the easier games to handicap are in Week 2 and 3. The second preseason game tends to see more regulars on the field and you should also have a good idea of what the backups can do from the opening games. We have seen a strategy change in recent years with coaches electing to sit regulars more often. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger each played a few series in Week 3 of the 2018 preseason and that was it. Considering how much success the Los Angeles Rams have enjoyed under Sean McVay, could other coaches follow his lead? Todd Gurley and Jared Goff did not play a single snap in a 2018 preseason game.
We still have what is considered the dress rehearsal. That comes in Week 3 when starters see their most action of the preseason. We typically have more of a regular season atmosphere than at any point during the preseason, but how long the regulars play is up to the coach.
Coaching
And that leads us to the men in charge. Each coach has his own way of handling the preseason and those who have been around have a history. Some put an emphasis on winning in the preseason and it shows in their record. Baltimore’s John Harbaugh hasn’t lost a preseason game in three years and has a sparkling 33-12 record in exhibition games. The same holds true for Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer, who has amassed a 17-4 preseason record.
Rookie coaches always want to make a solid first impression with their new employer and fan base, and they should be looked at when it comes betting time. There are six first-timers this year along with two other coaches that changed zip codes. And do not bet the preseason with an idea of what the team will look like once the real games begin. There is no correlation between the two. Seattle and Dallas each went winless in the 2018 preseason and they ended up playing each other in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
Quarterbacks
Coaches certainly make a difference, but focusing on depth charts will give bettors the biggest advantage. The key position obviously is quarterback. Get to know players behind the starters since they will be seeing a bulk of the action. A majority of preseason games are decided by the No. 3 and sometimes even the No. 4 QB. Backing teams with a strong quarterback situation will pay off more in the long run. Ideally backing teams with a settled quarterback rotation and a consistent group of coordinators will have an edge over a club with a revamped roster that’s learning a new system.
Spreads
Oddsmakers are trying to figure teams out during the preseason as well, so the house doesn’t have an advantage. Odds for most games are going to be around a field goal, give or take a few points. It’s not going to deviate much from that and you aren’t going to see a lot of line movement. If after doing your research you still have doubts about a game, the best strategy is to take the points. Check the Free Football Picks.
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