Sometimes it pays to be a leader rather than a follower. We went against the public on three games last week and hit on two of them, winning big with the Steelers in their rout of Carolina. We sided with the Giants in their Monday Night Football matchup with San Francisco when the Niners were getting backed by a majority of public play. The home team was hit hard on the wagers after the line hit the board, but perception changed over the course of the week and the Giants picked up some backers.
We’ll examine some Week 11 matchups to determine where money can be won when going against the public wagers on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu. The Seahawks are laying 2.5-points on the early line to Green Bay in the Thursday Night Football affair and 85 percent of the early action is backing Seattle. Despite getting thumped by Pittsburgh last week, the Panthers are a favorite pick of the public against Detroit on the early line. Confidence in Jacksonville has faded after five straight losses with Pittsburgh supported by 80 percent of the early money for the playoff rematch. Let’s take a look at a few of our fade the public play picks of the week.
Minnesota Vikings ( +3 ) at Chicago Bears
We can call the Bears contenders now that they are leading the NFC North into the second half of the season. However, there remain some non-believers out there and rightfully so. All six of Chicago’s victories this have come against teams that are currently below .500. The Bears don’t make the schedule they just play it, and they’ve done a nice job getting the town back behind them. They knocked off division rival Detroit last week for their sixth win, matching the most in any of the past five seasons.
Entering this game as a 3-point dog, the Vikings are getting most of the early play with 65 percent of the public backing the visitors. Minnesota went all in with the signing of Kirk Cousins during the offseason and winning games like this are why he’s getting the big bucks. He doesn’t have the best history during his time with the Redskins and he’s out to discredit his doubters. There is just something about the Bears that makes it hard to go against them. The offense is fun to watch and Khalil Mack has transformed a good defense into a great one. I’m going against the masses on this one taking the Bears minus the 3 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers ( -6 ) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Not many folks are giving the Jags a chance in this game. They opened as a 6-point home dog for this AFC Divisional Round playoff rematch with the Steelers looking to exact some revenge. Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense looked like a machine in wrecking the Panthers last Thursday, and the absence of Le’Veon Bell is well in the past. But, there could be a problem with James Conner, who entered the concussion protocol after last week’s game, and that could slow the machine.
The Jags haven’t given up on the season even though they’ve lost five in a row and sit at the bottom of the AFC South. They are saying the right things, at least publicly, and if they mean what they say we should see a better performance. One reason for optimism is the return of Leonard Fournette, who ran for nearly 300 yards with five touchdowns in Jacksonville’s two wins over Pittsburgh last year. And the defense picked off six Big Ben offerings, including five in the regular season win. I haven’t quit on the Jags yet either, and I like them at home, with their backs against the wall, and getting six points.
Washington Redskins ( +3 ) vs. Houston Texans
They are 6-3 and lead the NFC East by two games, but I’m not buying the Redskins. Especially since they are beat up and will have to play that way for a while. They did what they had to last week in Tampa, turning the game into a slugfest and outlasting the turnover-prone Bucs. But that style isn’t going to work every week, and it’s not going to work against better teams. The Texans fall into that category.
Houston entered its bye winning six straight and looking a lot like the team many expected in their preseason prognostications. During the winning streak the Texans have won with an explosive offense, stingy defense, strong special teams, and some luck. They beat Denver the last time out on a missed field goal at the final gun. Deshaun Watson has recovered and the Skins patched up offensive line will have trouble slowing down the likes of J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. The Skins are getting a majority of play on the early +3 line, but I like the Texans to continue rolling.
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