Can Patrick Mahomes duplicate his MVP performance from a season ago? The Kansas City Chiefs certainly hope he can. Mahomes became the third player in NFL history to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season, joining two of the best in Payton Manning and Tom Brady. And if you’re thinking he can come close to that number, Mahomes is the betting favorite at online sportsbooks to lead the league in scoring strikes in 2019.
Just how dominant was Mahomes at throwing touchdowns last season? His total was 11 more than runner-up Andrew Luck and a whopping 16 more than 2017 leader Russell Wilson. Mahomes threw multiple scoring passes in 14 of his 16 games and twice had six in a single contest. The race wasn’t even close. We know Mahomes is good. But is he THAT good?
Manning set the record with 55 touchdown passes in 2013. His total dipped to 39 the following year. Brady was the first to hit the half century plateau doing so in New England’s 2007 undefeated regular season. Brady missed all but a few snaps of the 2008 season, returning in 2009 to throw 28 TDs. He hasn’t thrown more than 39 touchdowns in a season since 07.
Most Regular Season Passing Touchdown Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patrick Mahomes +450
Andrew Luck +500
Matt Ryan +700
Aaron Rodgers +900
Baker Mayfield +1200
Ben Roethlisberger +1800
Philip Rivers +1800
Tom Brady +2000
Carson Wentz +2000
Drew Brees +2000
Deshaun Watson +2500
Jameis Winston +2500
Russell Wilson +3000
Kirk Cousins +3300
Jared Goff +3500
Jimmy Garoppolo +3500
Derek Carr +6000
Kyler Murray +6500
Mitchell Trubisky +7500
Sam Darnold +7500
Nick Foles +8500
Dak Prescott +8500
Cam Newton +10000
Andy Dalton +10000
Matthew Stafford +10000
Joe Flacco +12500
Dwayne Haskins +15000
Eli Manning +15000
Marcus Mariota +15000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +15000
Ryan Tannehill +15000
Josh Allen +20000
Josh Rosen +20000
Case Keenum +20000
Lamar Jackson +22500
Drew Lock +35000
Colt McCoy +50000
Daniel Jones +50000
Will Grier +50000
After putting up stupid numbers last year it’s hard to imagine anyone besting Mahomes in this category. As I outlined above, that’s a difficult if nearly impossible level to maintain. If it was so easy to throw 50 or more scoring tosses a season it would certainly have been done more than three times. So I expect some regression in Kansas City’s game. Will there be enough to unseat Mahomes?
Aaron Rodgers was the last player to reach 40 TDs, throwing that many in 2016. Injury issues that last few seasons limited his action and the thought is with a new coach and a healthy body, Rodgers can reach those lofty heights again. He is working with a rather green group of receivers, but Rodgers can be bought at +900.
Andrew Luck’s 39 TD passes were the second-most in the NFL in 2018. His return from a shoulder injury along with a revamped offense under Frank Reich allowed him to have a great comeback season. There are some concerns over Luck’s health this preseason and he likely won’t play an exhibition contest, which keeps me from back him at this price.
The Over 40 club has plenty of value with Tom Brady and Drew Brees both going off at +2000. Brady has led the league four times during his career, the last in 2015 when he threw 36 TD passes. Brady and the Pats got some good news when Josh Gordon was reinstated. If Gordon can keep his nose clean and rookie N’Keal Harry is as advertised. Brady has two vertical weapons to open up the offense. Brees saw his stock fall after a shaky end to last season.
Kirk Cousins was in a no-win situation last season after signing a big free-agent contract with the Vikings. Statistically his season was fine with a 70 percent completion rate, nearly 4,300 yards and a career-high 30 touchdowns. Now that things have calmed down he could be in for a big season and has plenty of value at +3300. The strategy has changed with an emphasis on offense. Gary Kubiak was brought in as an advisor for coordinator Kevin Stefanski, and with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph, Cousins has plenty of options.
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