Eclipsing the 4,000-yard passing mark was a big deal until the 1980s when it became commonplace. The next step up is 5,000 yards, which was accomplished just once before the 2008 season. In the previous 11 seasons the 5,000-yard barrier has been surpassed six times with Drew Brees doing it on four occasions. Brees had a down year in 2018 and he isn’t getting any younger. Many feel he could be on the downside of his Hall of Fame career. That may be the case, but if you think Brees and the Saints can again put together a prolific season, a big payday is waiting at top online sportsbooks.
In his first season as a starter Patrick Mahomes was ridiculous throwing for 5,097 yards to claim the NFL’s MVP award. Mahomes is the betting favorite at NFL sportsbooks to lead the league in passing yards in 2019. Last year’s leader Ben Roethlisberger amassed 5,129 yards and he slipped down the odds board at +850. That’s likely because Antonio Brown is no longer around and the passing game is expected to suffer because of it.
Most Regular Season Passing Yards Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patrick Mahomes +450
Matt Ryan +500
Aaron Rodgers +800
Andrew Luck +800
Ben Roethlisberger +850
Jameis Winston +1,000
Baker Mayfield +1,100
Drew Brees +1,800
Philip Rivers +2,000
Tom Brady +2,500
Jared Goff +3,000
Kirk Cousins +3,300
Carson Wentz +4,000
Jimmy Garoppolo +4,500
Derek Carr +4,500
Deshaun Watson +4,500
Kyler Murray +4,750
Matthew Stafford +5,000
Russell Wilson +7,000
Nick Foles +10,000
Sam Darnold +10,000
Cam Newton +10,000
Andy Dalton +10,000
Dak Prescott +12,500
Mitch Trubisky +15,000
Joe Flacco +15,000
Marcus Mariota +17,500
Lamar Jackson +20,000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +20,000
Josh Allen +20,000
Dwayne Haskins +20,000
Eli Manning +20,000
Case Keenum +20,000
Josh Rosen +25,000
Daniel Jones +50,000
The usual suspects are at the top of the list. Mahomes is in a prime spot to have another banner year. The Chiefs led the NFL in total offense and scoring last year and they should be among the best in 2019. Andy Reid just churns out offensive stars and with the Tyreek Hill situation resolved, Mahomes has one of his main weapons, which is why he tops the odds board.
Between 2005 and 2017 Tom Brady or Drew Brees led the NFL in passing yards 10 times. It’s a bit surprising to see those two down the list with Brees at +1800 and Brady at +2500. Age likely has something to do with that as both are in their 40s now. Two seasons ago Brady topped the league with 4,577 yards in his age 40 campaign. Brees led the circuit in each of the three years prior to that. They both have plenty of value at their current price and are not done playing football.
There are a few guys I’m looking at to lead the league. First, Matt Ryan is poised for a breakout season. Twice in the last three years Ryan passed for over 4,900 yards, finishing third in 2018. He has an abundance of pass catching talent led by Julio Jones and this year he’s reunited with former coordinator Dirk Koetter. In their first season together in 2012, Ryan enjoyed one of his finer campaigns with a NFL-best 68.6 completion percentage and 4,719 yards.
With Mahomes and Roethlisberger having outstanding individual seasons in 2018, it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who led the NFL in passing offense. This is a pivotal season for Jameis Winston, who played just 11 games last season. The hope is that Bruce Arians can coax an MVP-type year from Winston, who has been a head case. There’s not questioning the talent, however, he will be without DeSean Jackson, which could impact his numbers.
If he can get over the injury problems that have plagued him the last two years, Carson Wentz is the best bet at +4000. We saw what he is capable of in 2017 when he threw for nearly 3,300 yards before a knee injury ended his campaign after 13 games. He looked timid at times last year but still threw for 3,074 yards in 11 games. There is no Nick Foles backing him up this year and the Eagles look to have a premier offense with Wentz leading the way.
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