Our recent heater on the top over plays came to an unceremonious end last week with all three of our picks going the other way. We certainly didn’t expect the Colts to get shut out the way Andrew Luck had been playing, and we were counting on the Jaguars to maybe pack it in after their season was tossed in the toilet thanks to a seven-game losing streak. So of course the Jags play their best defensive game of the year to cash the under and hand us a loss. And kudos to the Chargers for storming all the way back after falling behind by 16 points at halftime of their Sunday night game against the Steelers. Playing the under in a game featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the game was a risk and unfortunately it didn’t pay off this time. Still, we are 11-7 on our over plays over the last six weeks we’ll look to get back in the winner’s circle this week.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 14 top total plays on the early line to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 14
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Over 47
Rookie quarterbacks experience growing pains and Baker Mayfield has had a lot in his first season. Not all is going to be rosy, especially for the No. 1 overall pick, who usually inherits a bad team, which is why he’s the top selection. Mayfield had another rookie moment last week against a good Texans defense, pissing down his leg in the first half of an eventual loss where the Browns managed just 13 points. Mayfield had nearly as many interceptions as completions in the first half, throwing for just 46 yards on 5 of 13 passing with three picks. The Browns trailed 23-0 at the break.
A good sign for the Browns is that Mayfield responded in the second half throwing for 351 yards on 24 of 30 passing. Sure, the Texans took their foot off the gas a bit, but Mayfield didn’t let the ugly first half affect his play, and that’s a positive for the future of the club. And it’s hard to imagine the Panthers struggling to score with as much talent as they have on offense. Greg Olsen is done for the year, but Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess should produce more. Cam actually outdid Mayfield by one in the interception category last week, thwarting a number of drives with his four picks. Expect a much cleaner game from both QBs, allowing the over to cash on a very reachable opening total.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Under 47.5
It was just two seasons ago when these team met in the NFC Championship with the Falcons winning a slugfest on their way to the Super Bowl. Both teams are on the outs this year and the Packers just changed coaches after a disastrous loss to the Cardinals. We may eventually see a coaching change in Atlanta, too. But that would involve O-coordinator Steve Sarkisian after the Falcons failed to score 20 points for the fourth straight game. It was an awful display against one of the better defensive clubs, but still, scoring 16 points and producing 131 yards of offense is unacceptable for this team.
And with the playoffs out of sight for both teams, what do they have to play for? Atlanta just can’t get out of its own way on offense and the Packers have a litany of injuries on offense that a coaching change isn’t going to solve. Aaron Rodgers looked lost the last few games as the Packers struggled to do anything and I just can’t see these teams suddenly finding the cure for their offensive problems. That makes taking the under a winning move.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Pick: Under 52.5
Against a sub-par Lions defense the Rams had their struggles offensively. And this week they get the Monsters of the Midway II in a Sunday night NFC matchup of division leaders. This has the feeling of Thursday night’s game between the Saints and Cowboys. The big, bad Rams (Saints), with one of the top offenses in the league, come to town against a Bears (Cowboys) team looking to cement its status as a playoff contender. The Bears will have Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback, which should help their offense. But the Rams played a strong game against the Lions with the return of Aqib Talib helping to solidify the secondary.
Two of the best defensive players in the game will battle it out with the Rams’ Aaron Donald and Chicago’s Khalil Mack, and it’s hard to not like this being a stout game between two solid ball clubs. This isn’t the Chiefs the Rams are playing, so don’t expect anything close to that Monday night tilt from a few weeks ago. Instead, we’ll have a matchup between two of the brightest offensive minds and a pair of veteran defensive coordinators who will get the best of each other.
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