We returned to our winning ways last week on our total plays, cashing a ticket on two of our three selections and just missing a clean sweep by falling a point short on the Rams-Eagles matchup. We did get a winner from the Texans and Jets, who easily eclipsed the total of 41 in Houston’s 29-22 victory. Playing the under has been a profitable maneuver over the past several weeks with a majority of games falling below the closing total. The under was 9-5 last week with two games pushing the total, and over the last three weeks the under is 29-17-2. The three highest scoring teams in the NFL all fell below their average last week and we had a pair of shutouts, two signs that the scoring pace has slowed since its feverish start. Only one game hit the board with a total over 50, that being the Sunday night matchup between Kansas City and Seattle. We improved our record to 14-10 over the last eight weeks and we’ll look to beat the house again in Week 16.
Here’s a look at a few Week 16 top total plays on the early line to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 16
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Pick: Under 44.5
Scoring points is a struggle for the Bills and if Josh Allen isn’t having success running the football, it could be a long day. One thing about the Patriots is that they are a much better team at home and expected cold weather at Gillette Stadium is likely to play a role. The Pats are looking forward to coming home after two wild weeks on the road that saw them lose the Miami Miracle game and then get worked over by the Steelers last week. New England has played below the total in six of its last seven games, including a win in Buffalo in October when they outlasted the Bills 25-6.
As bad as the Bills have been offensively, the defense has been a huge surprise and a major reason why the team has won five games. They have been good at preventing big plays and if they can do that against the Pats, the under is an easy play on this one. I don’t see Buffalo getting much done offensively and this could easily end up similar to the first meeting, which also cashed the under.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Over 45
We know how much Baker Mayfield dislikes former coach Hue Jackson, who took a job with the Bengals shortly after getting fired. So, in turn he must not like Cincinnati all that much either. And that could be enough to lift the Browns’ offense and cash the over in this game. Cleveland still has a mathematical chance at reaching the playoffs, and playing meaningful football in December hasn’t happened in a lot of years, leaving several variables at play when these two hook up. The biggest, obviously, is Mayfield, who threw a career-high four touchdown passes in Cleveland’s 35-20 win over the Bengals last month. The offense hasn’t been as sharp since, but Jackson will bring out the best in the No. 1 overall pick.
And that treatment of Jackson by Mayfield in the last meeting wasn’t lost on the Bengals’ players, who would like nothing more than to run up the score. They’ll have to do it without leading receiver Tyler Boyd, who sustained a knee injury last week, further depleting the offensive ranks. However, Joe Mixon has become a force this season and the Bengals played two strong games, knocking off the Raiders 30-16 last week. Cincy’s defense stinks and the Browns will come out firing, taking this game over the total.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Under 42.5
There is still work to be done in the remarkable turnaround season for the Bears. They clinched their first NFC North title since 2010 last week and recent stumbles by the Rams have a No. 2 seed in the conference in sight. And it’s clear why the Bears have been so good – their defense is dominant. The group shackled the Rams two weeks ago and threw a blanket over Aaron Rodgers last week. The addition of Khalil Mack made a good defense great.
And you can’t overlook the revenge factor for D-coordinator Vic Fangio, who held the same post under Jim Harbaugh on the Niners staff. Fangio was cut loose by the Niners shortly after Harbaugh was fired and I’m sure he would like nothing better than to stick it to his former club. And he has the horses to do it. I can’t see Nick Mullens having more success against the Bears than Jared Goff or Rodgers, and the Bears are still a work in progress on the offensive end, leaving this one short of the total.
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