Our run of good luck on the top total plays came to an end last week. Who would have thought the Buffalo Bills would score 41 points, which was just five fewer points than they had scored in their previous six games combined. And who would’ve guessed the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t score more than 30 points. Well, we didn’t, and we paid the price with a pair of losing tickets. The Saints game against Cincinnati played out the way we expected, so we at least got one win on the total, improving our record over the last three weeks to 7-2. We saw one of the lowest totals in recent memory hit the board last week with the Bills-Jets game at 37. Week 11 gives us a total on the other end of the spectrum. The Rams-Chiefs Monday night matchup total hit the board at 64, which would be the highest since 1986, according to researchers.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 11 top total plays to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 11
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Pick: Under 46
It’s a lot to expect Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears to score a bunch of points on the Vikings. Chicago has been an over machine on the total going 5-1 in its last six games, but they haven’t faced a defense as menacing as Minnesota’s in that span. And with first place in the NFC North on the line, this should be a tightly-contested divisional confrontation. Besides, it’s been a few years since the Bears were in a position like this and while they may eventually win the game, I don’t see them running around the Vikings.
And it appears as though the Khalil Mack maintenance program worked out just fine. The Bears rested Mack in two straight games to heal an ankle injury, and the former DPOY came back last week to register two of Chicago’s six sacks against the Lions. The Bears have 30 sacks and 24 takeaways on the year while holding opponents to 34 percent of third-down. It should be a good matchup against Kirk Cousins and the total is too high.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Under 47
So much is made of the Chargers offense that the other side of the football has gone largely unnoticed. But it’s the team’s defense that has been a big reason for the six-game winning streak the Chargers are currently enjoying. Over the last five games the Bolts have surrendered an average of just over 13 points per game. They held Oakland without a touchdown in a 20-6 win on Sunday, but lost linebacker Denzell Perryman to a knee injury, which could affect the group’s play.
While the numbers aren’t in line with season’s past for Denver’s defense, the unit has proven to be a stingy group when going against some of the better offensive teams. The Broncos have faced the Chiefs twice and the Rams, two of the highest scoring teams in the NFL, and while they’ve lost all three matchups they held them to a combined 26 points per game average. That’s more than acceptable against teams that routinely score over 30 points per outing.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Under 64
It’s tempting to take the over on this game even though it’s the highest total in over 30 years, according to some databases that track spreads and totals. The Chiefs are second in the league in scoring with 35.3 points per game while the Rams are third at 33.5. A recent matchup between the Rams and equally high-scoring Saints lived up to its billing with the teams combining for 80 points in the 45-35 New Orleans victory.
This is a neutral site contest in Mexico City, so neither side has home field advantage, which is something to consider. Also, both teams haven’t fared well in the elevation of Denver, and Mexico’s capital rivals that of the Mile High City. The Chiefs scored 27 points, which was their lowest output until last week’s matchup with Arizona. The Rams scored 23 points in their win at Denver in Week 6, which is their lowest total of the year. Also, the two previous games in Mexico City have averaged 44 points, leading me to take the under.
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