Going against the grain on the Carolina Panthers last week proved to be a wise choice on our part as the Bucs pulled off the upset as a 3-point dog to send 70 percent of the bettors to defeat. We weren’t so lucky on our other fade plays as the Rams put together a solid defensive game to slow down Matthew Stafford and the Lions, allowing them to cover the 10-point line much to the delight of the betting majority that backed the NFC West Champions.
All but two games on the Week 14 slate feature teams that are either in a playoff spot or close enough to the postseason that the game’s actually mean something. That’s another sign that parity in the league is alive and well. The AFC has the Jets and Buffalo hooking up in an East Division battle with a combined seven wins between them. Arizona and Detroit take their combined seven wins into battle in a NFC tussle.
Let’s take a look at a few of our Week 14 fade the public play picks of the week.
Tennessee Titans ( -3.5 ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Just when we thought the Jags wouldn’t win another game they came up with their best defensive effort of the season to blank Andrew Luck and the Colts, putting an end to their seven-game slide. It wasn’t the prettiest game and certainly didn’t make the highlight reels, since there were very few of them. But it was a thing of beauty for Doug Marrone. And for the first time since the first month of the season, the Jags looked like the team that came within a whisker of reaching the last Super Bowl. And the Jags have a bone to pick with the Titans and wouldn’t it be sweet to damage their playoff hopes since Jacksonville isn’t going anywhere.
Because of their woes and the fact that Cody Kessler isn’t going to change the fortunes of the offense anytime soon, the public is all over the Titans minus the points. Tennessee has a stingy defense of their own and the comeback last week from 16 points down to the Jets was inspiring. But this isn’t the Jets and Jacksonville got some swagger back. They also get Leonard Fournette back and if he plays the Jags should be more of a threat on offense. This will be a low-scoring game and getting 3.5-points is enough to make me take the Jags.
Baltimore Ravens ( +6 ) at Kansas City Chiefs
Taking away a key piece of the offense should hurt the Chiefs more against a top defensive club like Baltimore than it did against the Raiders. KC responded to the release of Kareem Hunt by throwing a 40 spot on the Raiders with Patrick Mahomes upping his NFL-leading touchdown pass total to 41 with four against Oakland. Now they have to try and penetrate the Ravens, who just shut down Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week.
The public is all over the Ravens with close to 65 percent of the early action backing the visitors plus the points. The loss of Hunt is a game-changer, but the Chiefs have turned to the guy who led them in rushing two years ago before losing his starting job due to an injury. Spencer Ware isn’t a bad option, folks, and I don’t think the Chiefs are going to suffer in the transition. Besides, they lit up the Raiders and didn’t have Sammy Watkins available either, so they can do damage even when not at full strength and the Ravens aren’t slowing them down.
Minnesota Vikings ( +3.5 ) at Seattle Seahawks
There are a lot of fans out there who still believe in the Vikings, and getting 3.5-points on the road for their Monday night matchup in Seattle has nearly 70 percent of the action backing the visitors early in the betting week. It’s been an inconsistent season for the Vikes, who many predicted to be at the top of the NFC standings after inking Kirk Cousins to a huge free agent deal. They still control their own destiny for a playoff spot, but Cousins was brought in to lead the team to a Super Bowl, not contend for playoff positioning.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are playing with a renewed sense of superiority. They manhandled the Niners last week behind another solid effort from Russell Wilson, and the defense turned it up a notch on Nick Mullens with three sacks and a pick-six from Bobby Wagner that made Richard Sherman proud. Mullens threw for over 400 yards, but a bulk of that came in the second half after the Seahawks had already built a big lead. Seattle has its swagger back and playing in Seattle is always tough on the visitors.
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