Another good week on our total plays saw us hit the trifecta again. For a third straight week a majority of games played below the total and we hit on a pair with the Baltimore-Pittsburgh and Lions-Vikings games, extending our record to 6-0 over the last two weeks. With points and touchdowns being scored at a record pace, we had one of the lowest totals in recent memory hit the board. Buffalo is averaging a league-low 10.7 points per game and the Jets have scored an average of 11 points over their last three outings and failed to reach the end zone last week. As a result the total surfaced at 37 and the public is pounding the under on early action with 80 percent of the wagers. Don’t worry, though, seven games on the Week 10 slate opened with a total of 50 points or more. Let’s take a look at a few Week 10 top total plays to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 10
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Pick: Under 37
Scoring has been a season-long issue for the Bills, who are averaging just under 11 points per game. They did break a two-game touchdown drought last week, but they only got one and finished with nine points, the third straight game with less than 10 points and the fifth game over all. It doesn’t matter who’s quarterbacking the club and the starter for the tilt against the Jets is unknown. Josh Allen has returned to practice after missing time with an injury and Derek Anderson remains in the concussion protocol. If it’s Nathan Peterman, the under is a lock as long as he doesn’t throw a bunch of pick sixes.
The Jets are having their own issues on offense and injuries have played a big role. Sam Darnold is missing most of his weapons and he’s struggled because of it. The Bills actually outscored the Jets last week and it’s just hard to see where the offense and the points are going to come from. We’re going the way of the public on this one and siding with the under on a ridiculously low total.
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Over 54.5
The Saints just put up 45 points against a pretty good Rams defense and they’ve got a balanced attack that gives opposing D-coordinators fits. Two weeks ago Drew Brees threw for 120 yards and New Orleans scored 30 points to beat Minnesota. Last week was more Brees-like as he threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns in a shootout with the Rams. With Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram running wild out of the backfield, the Saints had 141 rushing yards. New Orleans made a statement with their win over the Rams, but they can’t rest with the Panthers breathing down their necks in the NFC South.
Cincinnati is putting together one of the all-time worst defensive seasons and a week off isn’t going to change things. The Bengals allowed over 500 yards in each of their last two games and they rank last in the NFL in pass defense and total defense while placing 30th in scoring defense. Hell, the Saints could go over the total on their own. New Orleans hasn’t been as efficient on the road with the under going 3-1 in their four away games, but they haven’t faced a defense as bad as the Bengals.
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Over 50
The Chiefs are going to get their points because that’s what they’ve done all season. Patrick Mahomes was a novelty at the start of the season, tearing the league apart with touchdown passes while the Chiefs walked all over their opponents. But it couldn’t last. A second-year quarterback who started one meaningless game prior to this season couldn’t keep up that ridiculous pace. Halfway through the season and Mahomes tops the list of MVP candidates. He leads the league in passing yards and his 29 scoring passes are six more than the next closest player. The Chiefs have scored at least 30 points in eight of their nine games and they tallied 27 in the other outing. They lead the NFL with 36.3 points per game.
I’d typically stay away from the Cardinals and an over bet simply because they can’t score. But this is an interesting time for the Cards, who used their bye to get new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich more involved with the offense. The team showed potential in the fourth quarter of their last game, scoring 15 points to surge past the 49ers. The total in that final quarter was more than the Cards had scored in four full games. And Josh Rosen should feel more comfortable in the starting role now that Sam Bradford has been released.
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