The Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams is like Disneyland for prop bettors. Books were hammered a few weeks ago when the Rams and Saints combined to score 80 points to easily cash the over. Oddsmakers adjusted for this one with the total the highest for any NFL game since the numbers have been tracked. And the over/under of 63.5 still seems low. Not only can the teams score, they also own the best record in the league with a possible rematch between them in early February. On Monday night the L.A Coliseum will be the happiest place on earth for football fans.
Watch this Week 11 regular season matchup live on Monday, November 19, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5
Over/Under 63.5
This is one of the most anticipated games of the season and ESPN is going to get a ratings boost for its coverage. Both the Chiefs and Rams sit atop their respective conference with a 9-1 record, they both score a boat load of points with some of the best offensive talent in the league, and they each have some question marks on defense. Now, where do we start with the prop bets seeing as there will be quite a few.
The obvious beginning is at quarterback and you can’t argue with Patrick Mahomes getting some recognition as a potential MVP. An argument can also be made for Jared Goff and this game could sway some voters depending on how the QBs perform and the outcome. Mahomes has multiple touchdown passes in eight games, and has at least four in five games to lead the NFL with 31. Goff isn’t too far behind, ranking fourth with 22 scoring passes.
There’s a good chance we’ll see some aerials hit paydirt on Monday, begging the question how many? And the answer is a lot. But keep in mind that the oddsmakers have pegged a high total, so the projected numbers for each quarterback are going to be up there as well. Keep in mind that the game is no longer at a neutral site with the NFL pulling the plug on Mexico City due to unsafe playing conditions, making this a true home game for the Rams on a better track.
It’s hard to imagine Mahomes not throwing at least one touchdown pass and the Rams had a tough time defending Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in their last three games. Leave it to veteran D-coordinator Wade Phillips to devise a plan. And watch for former Chief Marcus Peters to come up with something big against his old mates. It’s hard to say this, but fade Mahomes on his passing numbers and go below his total in yards and touchdowns on a prop bet.
Kansas City has performed better defensively of late, which isn’t tough considering the unit was worked over earlier in the season. And the Chiefs weren’t exactly facing some offensive juggernauts with games against Arizona, Cleveland, Denver and Cincinnati in their last four, holding them to an average of less than 20 points per game. Still, the Chiefs rank 28th in pass defense and 29th in total defense while giving up the 16th-most points in the league.
Goff will be without his favorite target after Cooper Kupp was lost for the year with a knee injury. That just gives an opportunity for someone else to make plays, and the Rams still have Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, who have put up remarkably similar numbers this season. Cooks is the burner and is good for a few explosive plays each game. Woods has speed and is used more as the possession-type player, though he’ll explode every now and then as well.
The key to the offense, though, is Todd Gurley, the NFL’s leading rusher with nearly 1,000 yards. Gurley also tops the circuit in combined yards with 232 more than the next player, and he’s scored a touchdown in every game to lead the league with 17. Gurley will get plenty of touches again and he’s a good bet to go over his rushing and combined yards total and to also score a touchdown.
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