Yes Marion, defense is still played in the NFL. Or it could be some inept offensive teams still exist. A mix of both was on full display in Northern California over the weekend. The Bears can do some damage in the playoffs with their smothering defense and they locked down on the Niners to secure an under win for us on the total. That was one of our two winning tickets we had in the three weekly plays. We didn’t have a lot of confidence in Josh Allen on the road against the Pats, even though New England has proven to be vulnerable this year. Allen has been better than expected for the rebuilding Bills, but on the road against a hungry team they were no match and we cashed a winning ticket in that game. And for the second straight week we came oh so close to a clean sweep. Taking the over in the Browns-Bengals game seemed like a good play, but the teams fell a few points short of giving us sweep. We did improve our record to 16-11 over the last nine weeks and we’ll look to beat the house again in Week 17.
Here’s a look at a few Week 17 top total plays on the early line to help line your pockets
Top Total Plays of Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Pick: Over 40
We saw Deshaun Watson do some dynamic things last week, bringing back memories of his 2017 before a knee injury shelved him. And that’s good news for the Texans as they have a playoff spot secured and will win the AFC South with a victory. The Texans and Watson in particular, have been more efficient offensively over the past several weeks and will look to get more balance with an improved run game. They managed only 62 yards against the Eagles last week and the return of Lamar Miller should help.
Watson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for 49 yards and an additional two scores in a sparkling effort against Philly. Watson is at his best when moving the pocket and the elusive signal-caller will be avoiding Jacksonville’s pass rush all day. The career of Blake Bortles in Jacksonville looks like it’s coming to an end, but the QB didn’t squander his opportunity when inserted last week. Bortles has plenty to prove and he’ll likely get some playing time after Cody Kessler injured his shoulder. But what has me leaning toward the over is the play of the defenses. Both squads are good and points on that side of the ball will tip the number in our favor.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Over 45
It matters to Aaron Rodgers, and that’s all his teammates needed to hear. With the Packers eliminated from postseason contention and playing a meaningless game as far as the standings go, Rodgers lit up the Jets for 442 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime, for the 44-38 victory. The Pack had plenty of balance with Jamal Williams running for 95 yards while racking up 540 total yards. And don’t expect interim Joe Philbin to take it easy on Sunday with the chance for the head coaching job on the table.
The biggest concern in reaching the total is whether or not the Lions can produce enough points. The group has been a mess lately scoring fewer than 20 points in each of their last five games and getting just nine last week. The Packers haven’t been a brick wall on defense, so there is hope that Matthew Stafford will send his club into the offseason with at least a glimmer of hope on that side of the ball.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Under 50
The Rams will clinch a first-round bye with a win and the Niners are the patsy. LA snapped it’s losing streak with a 31-9 win over the Cards last week, and the defense played a stellar game. In fact, the group has been solid over the past few games while Jared Goff struggled and Todd Gurley was injured. Not that he’s into individual stats, but Aaron Donald has a chance to make history on Sunday. With three sacks, Donald can match Michael Strahan’s 2001 single-season NFL record, and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year had four sacks when these teams met earlier. That also resulted in a 39-10 Rams victory.
Making matters worse for the Niners is that leading rusher Matt Breida and receiver Dante Pettis joined the group of walking wounded and will not play, further impacting their ability to score points. Nick Mullens has been decent since taking over, but he failed to lead a touchdown drive last week and it’s unlikely the Niners score enough against a Rams team set on getting that No. 2 seed and the bye that comes with it.
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