With the NFL game evolving over the years to favor offensive football and scoring, oddsmakers have had to adjust as well. Five games on the Week 4 slate had a total of more than 50 and only one game cashed the over. However, over bettors still had the advantage last week with nine of the 14 games exceeding the point total. Let’s take a look at some total plays in Week 5 that can help put coin in your pocket.
Top Total Plays Of Week 5
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Pick: Under 51
The Pats broke out of their slumber last week by hanging 38 points on the Dolphins. Tom Brady was his efficient self throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns and the group was balanced with a 112-yard rushing effort from rookie Sony Michel. Even with that, the Pats played below the total thanks to a defensive scheme that thwarted the Fins attack. The Colts had their best offensive game of the season last week in a 37-34 loss to the Texans. Andrew Luck threw for a career-best 464 yards and four touchdowns on 62 pass attempts.
All of that points to this game exceeding the opening total of 51 on the NFL betting line. But a deeper look has us leaning toward the under. Neither team has shown the ability to hit the chunk play and injuries to critical offensive playmakers on both sides could impact the outcome. The Pats will likely be without Rob Gronkowski and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and must hit the road on a short week without the services of leading receiver T.Y. Hilton.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Over 44
The Giants have too many playmakers on offense to be ranked where they are. Pat Shurmur milked a career season out of Case Keenum last year in Minnesota and he has yet to work his magic with Eli Manning. But it’s just a matter of time. If Manning has anything left in the tank now is the time with the Giants season on the brink. It’s hard to imagine a bunch of points being scored by the G-Men in this game since they managed just 18 against the Saints and haven’t scored 30 in a game since Tom Coughlin was coaching. But it’s time to get Odell Beckham the damn ball.
Coming off their bye week, the Panthers will be rested and could put up 44 points on their own against a Giants defense that has again struggled against the run. With Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey running wild, the Giants will be powerless to stop them. And what makes this game so enticing is the relatively low total of 44 on the opening NFL betting lines. The Panthers played over that exact same number in each of their previous two games and they should be able to top it again in this one, making it one of our top total plays of the week.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Over 40.5
Playing their first game without Jimmy Garoppolo, the Niners weren’t completely lost on offense. With the help of a defensive touchdown, they scored 27 points, covered the spread and easily cashed the over against the Chargers last Sunday. That might be too much to expect moving forward, but Garoppolo’s understudy C.J. Beathard isn’t completely new to this situation. He did start five games last season gaining valuable experience in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. That translated into a decent outing last week with nearly 300 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns as the Niners blew a late lead.
The total for this matchup opened on the NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu at 40.5, which in today’s NFL is low. Only one other game had an opening total below 44. That doesn’t mean teams are going to cover since they still have to score. The Cards dropped the Sam Bradford experiment and turned to rookie Josh Rosen last week. Making his first start the rookie was poised and confident and the Cards responded with their highest scoring game of the season. They scored only 17 points, but that nearly matched the total from their first three games combined and the Niners haven’t been the best at stopping teams.
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