With touchdowns and points in the NFL at an all-time high, one might expect over bettors to be raking in the dough. Alas, that hasn’t been the case. Oddsmakers have made adjustments as well and the over went 8-7 in Week 5. We haven’t had a week with more under winners yet, but the games have been close with the over at 41-37 through five weeks. We hit on two of our three top total plays last week with, you got it, the over covering in the two wins. Week 6 of NFL regular season has some intriguing matchups and we’ll take a look at a few top total plays that will build your pocketbook.
Top Total Plays Of Week 6
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Pick: Over 45
A pair of gun-slinging quarterbacks going against suspect defenses typically means points will be scored. And that’s what we’ve got in this matchup. Of course you can never predict what’s going to happen, but the stars are aligned for the over to cash in this one against a relatively low opening point total of 45. Andrew Luck has thrown for 829 yards with seven touchdowns in his last two games and the Colts scored a total of 58 points. Some of that had to do with playing from behind, but Luck can do that in a game that’s close, and usually he has to with a running game that’s non-existent.
The Jets had an offensive awakening last week and Sam Darnold wasn’t the focal point. After scoring a total of 41 points in their previous three games, Gang Green ran wild against what was thought to be a decent Broncos defense. Isaiah Crowell had a team record 219 yards rushing and the Jets amassed 323 yards on the ground to beat Denver 34-16. Darnold wasn’t needed, but he came through when he had two with three of his 10 completions going for touchdowns. Neither team has stood out defensively and that has us leaning to the over.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Under 53
If history tells us one thing it’s that these teams don’t score a combined 50 points. In the last eight get-togethers they’ve exceeded 50 points in a game just once with that coming back in the 2015 campaign. Going back 10 seasons and including a playoff encounter, the highest closing total on the board for a game between these AFC North rivals is 49.5. And over those 21 games the under is 11-10. Something about this matchup brings out the best in the Steelers and the worst in the Bengals, and the extracurriculars take away from the game.
The Bengals needed two defensive touchdowns last week to beat the Dolphins 27-17. It was the first time all season they played below the total. Pittsburgh has come to terms with the Le’Veon Bell situation and have entrusted the running game to James Connor, who scampered for 110 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons last week. Ben Roethlisberger threw a trio of scoring passes and the Steelers put up 41 against a decimated Falcons defense. I can’t see that happening against the Bengals.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Pick: Over 52.5
A couple of weeks ago the opening total for this game would have sounded absurd to most bettors. How things have changed. The once feared Denver defense was annihilated last week by the Jets of all teams. The Broncos allowed 323 rushing yards and 512 total yards in the 34-16 loss. They surrendered scoring plays of 76 and 77 yards and gave up six plays that covered at least 35 yards. Now they get the kings of the chunk play in the Rams, who lead the NFL with over 468 total yards per game.
The Rams have had issues of their own on defense the last three games, surrendering a total of 85 points in that span. They gave up exactly 31 points in each of the last two games and gave up three long scoring drives to the Seahawks last week. A lot of deficiencies on that side of the football have been masked by an offense that can run with Todd Gurley and pass with Jared Goff. The Broncos have played better at home, which made me second guess this selection, but the Rams are better and more consistent than they were last season and they can overcome injury concerns that could affect the status of Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp for this one.
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