Two rematches of great regular season games will determine which teams play in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta in two weeks’ time. Back in mid-October, the New England Patriots went into Arrowhead Stadium and came out with a 43-40 victory. Tom Brady and the Patriots run game were great in the shootout, totaling more than 500 total yards in the win. The preview to the NFC Championship Game was a shootout too. The New Orleans Saints were the first team to beat the heretofore undefeated Los Angeles Rams on the year, jumping on them in the first half with great performances from Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. That win ended up earning them homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
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Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Over 57
Both teams were able to move the ball effectively against the other when these teams met in early November, so its no surprise to see such a large total.
Brees and the Saints offense set records this season, and the quarterback ended up having the most efficient season in NFL history. He broke his own competition percentage record, and he continued to limit his interceptions with just five picks this year.
The front office has given him a number of weapons over the last couple seasons, and that has made the Saints even more deadly. Michael Thomas has been very prolific as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, and he has been able to get open throughout the year. His catch rate is very impressive for a No. 1 option, and he exploded with 12 receptions for 211 yards and a score in the first meeting between these teams.
That was a great performance, but the real key to the Saints offense this year is Kamara. His versatility out of the backfield gives Sean Payton an incredible weapon, and Kamara is averaging 5.8 yards per touch. He has not fumbled once this season, giving New Orleans a very reliable option at running back.
The Rams have the best running back in the league in Todd Gurley. Gurley has been hampered by a knee injury, but he and CJ Anderson had no problems running all over the Cowboys defense. That is a good sign they will be able to move the ball once more, especially considering star defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles tendon.
Jared Goff is not as efficient as Brees, but he should be able to move the ball on the Saints’ secondary considering their defensive line is having so many problems. As for the Rams’ defense, they have not been as good as we expected, so I think the over is a great play here.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Under 54.5
Let’s get the obvious out of the way here. The main reason to like the under is the weather. Currently, an arctic blast is forecasted to hit Kansas City right before kickoff, making this potentially one of the coldest games on record. There is some uncertainty as to just how cold it will get, but the temperature is expected to be anywhere from -5 degrees to 10 degrees Fahrenheit.
That is likely to limit the playmaking ability of the Chiefs offense. Neither Tyreek Hill or Patrick Mahomes II have experienced that kind of cold before, and their play is likely to be affected. Such cold weather will have an affect on older players too, and Tom Brady might not be his normal self either.
The Patriots defense is the other reason to like the under here. They rose up in a big way to shut down the Chargers until the game was well out of hand, and you have to think that Bill Belichick and company have something in store for the Chiefs. Belichick will find enough ways to limit Mahomes, with the help of the weather, to push this one under.
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