Who do you think will win the NFL Coach of the Year Award for 2021? Miami’s Brian Flores is the favorite to win the award at odds of +712. Two other coaches are listed with odds of more than +1000. They are Washington’s Ron Rivera at odds of +764 and Atlanta’s Arthur Smith at odds of +921. When you look at betting this prop it is important to remember that no winner of this award in the last 30 years has coached a team to less than 10 wins and only twice since 2000 has the winning coach’s team had fewer than 11 wins. Let’s look at NFL Coach of the Year odds and a few picks.
NFL Coach of the Year Odds for the 2021-2022 Season
Brian Flores +712
Ron Rivera +764
Arthur Smith +921
Brandon Staley +1448
Kevin Stefanski +1566
Bill Belichick +1660
Kyle Shanahan +1719
Joe Judge +1802
Sean McDermott +1875
Sean McVay +1875
Mike Zimmer +2003
Bruce Arians +2091
Robert Saleh +2091
Nick Sirianni +2124
Andy Reid +2311
Frank Reich +2311
John Harbaugh +2311
Matt Rhule +2311
Zac Taylor +2420
Matt LeFleur +2642
Mike McCarthy +2642
Sean Payton +2753
Urban Meyer +2865
Kliff Kingsbury +2979
Mike Vrabel +2979
Pete Carroll +3206
Jon Gruden +3548
Matt Nagy +3548
Mike Tomlin +3664
Vic Fangio +4000
Dan Campbell +5200
David Culley +6000
Top Contenders are Overvalued
When I normally look at props I can understand the favorites, but with Coach of the Year odds I really don’t get it. Why is Flores listed as the favorite? Are the Dolphins really going to be a team that impresses everyone? They have a season win total of 9.5, so it is at least possible they win 10 or 11 games, but I am still not sold. I think the odds on Flores are too low.
I also think the odds on Rivera are too low. The season win total on Washington is 8.5. If you look at history you find that the winner has led his team to at least 10 or 11 wins. Maybe Washington will be that good, but I sure can’t bet on it.
The third choice in the betting odds is Atlanta’s Arthur Smith and I think his odds are too low. The Falcons win total is 7.5 games. Can you see the Falcons with an aging Matt Ryan winning 10 or 11 games? I can’t see it and that means Smith is totally overvalued.
Top Value Picks
Brandon Staley +1448
I think you can make a case that Staley should be favored and we are getting odds of almost 15-1. The Chargers should be improved this season, as they finally got rid of Anthony Lynn. History has shown that new head coaches can win this award and the Chargers have a season win total of 9.5. I can definitely see Los Angeles winning at least 10 or 11 games.
Kyle Shanahan +1719
I think there is value on Shanahan winning the award this season. The 49ers were decimated by injuries last season and now they get everyone back. Don’t forget that San Francisco was a Super Bowl team just two years ago. The 49ers have a season win total of 10.5 so I can definitely see the 49ers winning 10 or 11 games.
Bruce Arians +2091
There is a chance the Bucs could be favored in every game this season. The only potential landmine on paper is the early season matchup at the Rams. I know that the Bucs are defending Super Bowl champs so Arians won’t get a ton of credit if this team wins 13 or 14 games, but what if they win 16 games. He would definitely get a lot of attention and his odds are nearly 21-1 to win this award.
John Harbaugh +2311
Why is Harbaugh listed at odds of more than 20-1? The Ravens have a season win total of 11 and that means oddsmakers can see this team winning at least 11 games in 2021. If the Ravens win 12 or 13 games and finish as the top team in the AFC there is a decent chance that Harbaugh wins this award, and don’t forget he won this award two years ago when the Ravens went 14-2.
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