Had Jalen Hurts not been unseated by Tua Tagovailoa as QB1 in Tuscaloosa, he likely would’ve had an excellent shot of going in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. But because Nick Saban chose to bench him in the second half of the 2018 National Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs, he now offers up a huge 7-1 return if drafted within the first 32 picks. It’s already a foregone conclusion that Joe Burrow is going No. 1 to the Cincinnati Bengals. From there, it’s a coin flip between Tua and Justin Herbert as the second and third QBs off the board. The real crapshoot comes to pass immediately after with guys like Hurts, Jacob Eason and Jordan Love all clamoring for a starting QB1 gig. Hurts won’t likely won’t be going in the first round or starting in round four. But which is it, round three of round four? Let’s try to figure it out.
Round 1: +700
Round 2: +150
Round 3: +175
Round 4-7: +225
If there’s a team in the second and third round that values a field general being able to effectively run an offense, hurt opposing defenses with both his arm and legs, throw touchdown passes in the money zone and most importantly not turn the ball over, then you can’t help but think teams with needs at quarterback will be chomping at the bit to acquire the services of Hurts later this month. Throughout his stay in Tuscaloosa as QB1 of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Hurts went on to throw for 5,287 yards and a 45:12 TD/INT ratio. He also added 333 rushing yards and 22 TD! In his lone season running the offense in Norman last season, the kid threw for a whopping 32 TD and only 7 interceptions; the kid simply just knows how to value possession of the pigskin! On top of that, he rushed the ball 219 times for over 1,250 yards and hit pay dirt 18 times. Combined, the kid scored 50 freaking touchdowns! In this day and age of heavy RPO offenses, scouts and general managers have got to be licking their chops! Especially considering how late in this draft they could acquire his talents.
Before I get into what round I believe Hurts ultimately goes off the board in, it’s important to see where the betting market first opened this prop up. Round 1 was a heavy 12-1 underdog. With that, there’s some people out there that think Hurts just might have what it takes to be selected in the opening round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Round 2 clocked in at +160, so the wagers taken in thus far look to be in agreement that Hurts will hear his name called between picks No. 33 and 64. Round 3 was the favored side initially with it checking in at +115, but NFL Draft bettors have bloated that number up to +175 making it very unattractive. Interestingly enough, Rounds 4-7 have also gotten some burn with it initially hitting the board at +300. As much respect he’s gotten from the betting markets, there also look to be naysayers out there as well!
Which brings us to the point everyone clicked on the link to read this article; what round is Hurts going in? I truly believe the best scenario for the soon to be 22-year old would be as a back-up option to start. To be honest, I’m pretty surprised to see all the love Hurts got to go in the first round. There isn’t a team I have pegged at the tail end of it in need of a QB or back-up for that matter. I’m also not so sure the second round is where he ultimately goes off the board since I think guys like Jacob Eason and Jordan Love will ultimately go before him. For me, it’s either the third or fourth through seventh round. Should it be the third, it’ll be a team like the New England Patriots or Tennessee Titans that take a chance so long as Jake Fromm is already off the board. If not, Hurts would look great in a Pittsburgh Steelers jersey should upper management decide replacing Big Ben is something that should be entertained early on in the fourth round.
The Chicago Bears could also be a potential suitor by trading up to acquire his services as well regardless of just bringing in Nick Foles to put some heat on Mitchell Trubisky. While Hurts is still a work in progress, the team that lands him will be thrilled they did when he finally takes over under center full time down the road.
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