The unpredictable nature of the NFL caught us last week with the Dallas-Washington Thanksgiving matchup easily going over the closing total. Of course we sided with the under while trying to figure out where the offense was going to come from. The Boys got a breakout game from Amari Cooper to help them climb into a first-place tie in the NFC East. We did hit on our two other total plays, raising our record to 11-4 over the last five weeks. We bought the Giants and Eagles when the total was at 46 and won the over when the teams combined for 47 points. The Jags and Bills are two bad teams but they can still score some points. Betting the over on a total of 37.5 proved to be a smart play.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 13 top total plays on the early line to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 13
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Over 48
The precedent has already been set with these teams playing over the closing total of 48 a few weeks ago in the Colts 29-26 win. Since losing 20-16 at Philadelphia in Week 3, the Colts have been surprisingly strong offensively by topping the 30-point mark five times and scoring at least 24 points in every game since. Andrew Luck’s comeback from shoulder surgery has the Colts in the thick of the AFC playoff race and he’s thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last four games. He also has at least that many in eight straight contests.
The Jags aren’t facing the ’85 Bears in this one, though it looks that way most weeks with their dysfunctional offense. The group got a kick in the pants when O-coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was fired this week, and that should be enough to inspire better play from the offense. We won’t see Leonard Fournette, who was suspended for a game after his part in a ruckus with the Bills. Cody Kessler gets a chance to prove he’s an NFL quarterback, and he can’t be worse than Bortles, can he?
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Under 46.5
NFL talent evaluators usually aren’t wrong in their assessment of players. And while it initially looked like they missed on Niners quarterback Nick Mullens, things have settled down. Mullens made a splash with a record-setting performance in his debut a few weeks ago, but time has a way of distinguishing the good from the not-so-good and that’s what happened. The yards and completion percentage have declined each game since Mullens went 16 of 22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Raiders. Last week against a bad Bucs defense, the rookie completed just 18 of 32 with two picks.
These clubs have played a number of low-scoring games in the past and there’s nothing to suggest that will change. Both like to run the football, and the Niners will be forced to after watching Mullens get mauled by Tampa last week. That lines up for a methodical approach that will chew up the clock and limit big play opportunities. The teams cashed the under twice last season and seven times in the last 10 regular season meetings against totals lower than what’s currently on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Under 51
Don’t expect Philip Rivers to complete 25 straight passes this week. And you can bet the Steelers will preach ball security during the week and not cough it up four times like they did in a loss to the Broncos. This is a tantalizing matchup of AFC contenders that’s worthy of getting the flex nod for a move to prime time. And while both teams have a cadre of offensive weapons, it’s been their defense that’s done plenty of damage. The Bolts had a breakout against the Cards scoring 45 points with Rivers absolutely on fire. But it was the Cardinals.
Faced with a little resistance from the Broncos last week, the Steelers were able to move the football but they couldn’t cash in due to their miscues. Over the last two games, the Steelers have scored a total of 37 points. The Bolts welcomed Joey Bosa back to the lineup and he responded with a pair of sacks last week, and he’ll make life tough on Ben Roethlisberger. The offense gets most of the attention on both sides, but they are solid defensively and given the conditions, that will win out to keep the score below the total.
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