Once again the unpredictable nature of the NFL caught us on our over plays last week as we missed on two of our top three picks. It looks like the coaching change in Green Bay paid off, at least for one week when the Packers erupted for a season-high point total in taking down the Falcons. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have overly impressive numbers, but the Packers were able to do some damage on third down and that allowed them to overtake Atlanta. We did expect more from the Panthers with their playoff lives on the line and they dropped a critical game to the Browns, falling below the total. We did get a winner in the Sunday night game, breaking our mini slump to move our record to 12-9 over the last seven weeks. We’ll look to improve our record and cash another winning ticket this week.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 15 top total plays on the early line to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 15
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Pick: Over 41
Now that the Texans long winning streak is over, they can go about starting another one at the expense of the New York Jets. We’re still waiting to see the explosiveness Deshaun Watson showed us last season when he was tearing up the league before tearing up his knee. At the expense of all those electrifying plays and touchdowns, Houston is winning football games. It’s a tradeoff I’m sure Watson will gladly take. But at some point the offense is going to have to win a few games and we’ve seen glimpses.
While the Texans saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end last week, the Jets put their six-game losing streak to bed with a comeback win over the Bills. And we got a glimpse of Sam Darnold for the first time in a few weeks and he delivered in crunch time, directing the drive that resulted in the go-ahead touchdown. Darnold wasn’t spectacular, but he was efficient, and he showed that the injured foot seems to be healed with a mad scramble that ended in touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. He’ll need to be fleet-footed against the Texans pass rush.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Under 47
The Dallas defense has been underrated all season and the Colts have gotten better as the season progressed. That makes for some difficult times scoring the football and I like the under in this matchup. Outside of Ezekiel Elliott, the Boys haven’t had much offense, and even the acquisition of Amari Cooper hasn’t completely resolved the problem. Coop made Jerry Jones look like a genius last week with three touchdown grabs, but it took an extra period to get the last.
I’m not knocking the Cowboys, but they aren’t very diverse when it comes to playing offense. The Boys have relied on their defense to get to the top of the NFC East, and they will ride the group again on Sunday. Andrew Luck’s torrid pace has slowed and the Colts have seen a dip in production. Luck has actually been pressured the past few games and the passing numbers have declined. One thing the Boys can do is get after the quarterback, so I don’t anticipate Luck having a big game, and that leaves our score under the total.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Over 54
Playing the over in a game where the total is 50 or higher hasn’t been profitable over the past three weeks with only three of 13 games cashing a winning ticket. And the Rams have been vulnerable since their bye, splitting two games while scoring a total of 36 points and playing below the total in each game. This one feels a little different, though. First off, the Eagles still have a beat up secondary and they just allowed 576 yards to the Cowboys. That included three scoring passes to Amari Cooper over the fourth quarter and overtime. This hasn’t been the best of times for Jim Schwartz and his defense.
And keep in mind that the Rams are playing at home for the first time since that epic Monday night game against the Chiefs when the teams combined for 105 points. The over is 4-2 in the Rams six home games and I fully expect them to iron out the issues that plagued them the last two games. There is too much talent on offense for the Rams to be mired in an offensive slump and the Eagles are going to pay the price.
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